Opinion
The facts don’t support a shadowy Washington conspiracy. NATO has not ‘expanded’ east towards Russia. Former Soviet nations have rushed westward towards democratic freedoms and collective security.
The idea that democracies bait their autocratic opponents into doing something rash is remarkably persistent.
NATO expansion forced Putin to invade Ukraine, China will invade Taiwan because of US hegemonic militarism, North Korea is launching missiles because it feels boxed in. And so on.
Ukraine’s request for NATO membership was a so-called “red line” for Putin. AP
Two false assumptions drive this view.
Firstly, the United States, with support from its vassal state allies, is the only nation with free will. And secondly, that a “hidden hand” is behind major global events.
Only, peddling these narratives lets the Dictators Club off the hook for their own egregious behaviour.
The truth is, bad actors do bad things because they have bad motives. They don’t need encouragement.
Putinistas argue that Russia was effectively forced into invading Ukraine by an aggressively expansionist NATO. Having added new member nations since the end of the Cold War, Ukraine’s request for NATO membership was a so-called “red line” for Putin.
Parking the fact Ukraine’s bid was fanciful, the logic simply doesn’t hold up.
Firstly, NATO is a purely defensive alliance underpinned by the ethos of “touch one, touch all”. Since its creation in 1949 as a democratic wall against Soviet aggression, NATO has unilaterally invaded precisely zero nations. NATO has only participated in legal military actions approved by the UN.
Instead, Putin invaded Ukraine to stop it joining an alliance of countries worried about Russia invading it one day. Putin might hate NATO, but he’s its greatest advertisement since Joseph Stalin.
Nor do the facts support a shadowy Washington conspiracy.
NATO has not “expanded” east towards Russia as much as former Soviet nations rushed westward towards democratic freedoms and collective security. Former eastern bloc nations lobbied hard for NATO and European Union membership for years while satisfying extremely rigid membership criteria. Today, it’s hard to argue any lingering suspicions of Moscow’s motivations weren’t well held.
Having lived under Soviet jackboots, Poland and Lithuania have been vocal critics of Russia while providing the largest proportional support for Ukraine’s defence. Far from doing US bidding, they’re demanding Biden send even more military kit.
Free will just doesn’t enter his calculations, which is why he is so horrified by democratic movements on his doorstep.
Russia’s other bordering nations, Sweden and Finland, learned a lesson from the invasion, only not the one Putin wanted. Having avoided NATO membership for the entire Cold War, both have responded logically and opted for strength in numbers.
The fact is, Putin invaded Ukraine because he couldn’t accept part of Russia’s old empire looking to Brussels rather than Moscow for its future. Putin is hoping muscle can do what his ideas couldn’t. But you can’t make someone love you.
While Putin considers the USSR’s collapse the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, he pines for Russia’s old 19th-century empire. Putin’s 2021 essay On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, which defines ancient Russia’s boundaries extending into Belarus and Ukraine, highlights his belief in the manifest destiny of Imperial Russia.
Putin longs for a world where old blokes in smokey rooms can carve up the world. Free will just doesn’t enter his calculations, which is why he is so horrified by democratic movements on his doorstep.
Putin’s belief that the CIA is behind every coup or colour revolution is expert levels of projection. The far left and the authoritarian right are most attracted to the idea of someone pulling the strings behind the scenes. The left sees it as a reassuring excuse for an inability to win on the merits of the case, while authoritarians assume everyone is as crooked as they are.
Only the problem for Chomsky devotees or wannabe Russian tsars is even James Bond isn’t that good. Though democracies have undoubtedly helped ginger movements along, people don’t take to the streets or risk their lives for the geopolitical interests of foreign nations. They do it because they want to be free.
Ukrainians toppled the Yanukovych government in 2014 because they wanted to join the EU, not Moscow. Likewise, Russians protested Putin’s constitutionally illegal return to the presidency not on Hillary Clinton’s orders but because they know a dictator when they see one.
Otherwise, as an old unionist I’d love to know how the spooks did it. If we could get our hands on the playbook, the means of production would be socialised. And then lunch!
The case of Taiwan is similar, where apologists chide critics of Xi’s China as “warmongers”.
On the one hand, the 25 million people on the self-governed democracy of Taiwan want to be left alone. They don’t seek independence, but fiercely reject Beijing’s domination. Far from wanting war, the US is heavily invested in preserving the peaceful status quo. Same with Japan. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping says Taiwan must be under Chinese Communist Party control by 2049. Or else. So, who is the aggressor?
The democratic record is far from perfect. The invasion of Iraq was a disaster that fuelled the rise of ISIS, not to mention justifying Putin’s brand of authoritarian whataboutism.
However, critics might also consider whether a Black Lives Matter type movement could arise in the diverse Russian caucuses or whether Beijing might hold a referendum for a Uighur Voice.
The idea of a meddling West unnecessarily provoking dictators is reassuring because it allows you to visualise an alternative to standing up to them. But given ignoring bad behaviour only encourages worse behaviour, there really is no choice at all.
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