As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine goes into reverse, another crisis for the Kremlin is developing in the former Soviet possessions of central and western Asia.
Five of the six full members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), Russia’s analogue to Nato that covers the region, are in varying states of war.
Russia and Belarus are embroiled in Ukraine. Azerbaijan – a non-member – has launched an offensive against Armenia and continues to occupy Armenian territory with a shaky ceasefire in place. Around 100 soldiers have died in fighting between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Each nation was previously a subject of both the Russian empire and then the Soviet Union. Russia remains the undisputed economic, cultural, and military power in the region, with Russian exports flowing to the provinces and migrant labourers making the opposite journey. Russia’s language and military bases extend across the former Soviet territories.
But when Armenia invoked the CSTO’s mutual defence pact following the Azeri offensive, Russia did not come to its aid. Neither has Moscow intervened in the conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, having previously played a peacekeeping role in the disputed border region.
Russia’s abdication of its role as security guarantor, following its invasion of Ukraine, has triggered reactions across the region. Protesters in Armenia have called for the government to exit the CSTO. Political leaders have strayed from traditional support for Russia in international forums.
Governments of the region are “keeping a fine balance,” says Dr. Aijan Sharshenova, a political analyst in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. “They are being very careful with the words they choose and showing support to Russia without alienating the international community.”
Kazakhstan, one of Russia’s closest allies in central Asia, has gone furthest in diverging from the Kremlin. Astana has refused to recognise the independence of the ‘People’s Republics’ in the Donbas, organised fundraising for Ukraine, and allowed protests against the invasion. Kazakhstan has also abstained on, rather than opposed, UN resolutions critical of Russia.
This is likely motivated by self-preservation, suggests Professor Rico Isaacs, editor of the Central Asia Survey journal. Kazakhstan shares a 4,750-mile border with Russia, and Russian leaders have made threatening comments that echo their language on Ukraine, such as former President Dimitry Medvedev’s claim that Kazakhstan is an “artificial state.”
“There is a fear in Astana that if Russia can do this to Ukraine, who’s next?” says Isaacs. Russia’s military performance in Ukraine may also have raised doubts about its value as a security guarantor, he adds.
Russia is attempting to shore up support in the region by making it a higher priority, says Dr. Sharshenova. “The amount of attention our leaders have been getting from Putin and his staff is unprecedented – meetings, calls, invitations to Moscow as well,” she says. Central Asia has been flooded by Russian holidaymakers and visa tourists who would usually visit more glamorous destinations, says Dr Sharshenova.
This charm offensive may be coming too late in some cases. Tigran Khzmalyan, leader of Armenia’s European Party, tells the i that it was agreed in principle at a parliamentary meeting on September 20 that the country should leave both the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). “The Prime Minister (Nikol Pashinyan) said he had never seen such anti-Russia feelings in Armenia,” says Khzmalyan.
Khzmalyan describes the recent visit of US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Armenia, and suggestion of military aid as a “proposal we have no right to reject.” He believes that Azeri aggression is happening with Russia’s blessing and favours a shift to an alliance with the EU and Nato.
“There is a very short time to make a drastic choice and change from the orientation which brought us to the edge of the abyss,” says Khzmalyan. He adds that the large population of Russian dissidents now based in Armenia after fleeing their homeland are an asset for the movement against Moscow.
The question of whether Russia can’t intervene in the region’s conflicts due to being overstretched in Ukraine, or is choosing not to, divides local opinion. While Russia has withdrawn servicemen from around the world to fight in Ukraine, analysts suggest that Putin may also feel more closely aligned with the autocracies in Azerbaijan and Tajikistan than their relatively democratic neighbours. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has amassed 27 years in power – slightly longer than Putin’s 22.
If Russia’s power diminishes in the region, other players could be ready to fill the vacuum. China is already outspending Russia in central Asia with scope to increase its influence. The US could become a patron of Armenia, although its appetite for regional dominance is likely tempered by its experience in Afghanistan. Turkey and Iran could also take advantage of the upheaval.
But this might also offer an opportunity for former imperial subjects to shape their own destiny. “I hope we are shifting away from a Russia-centric view and having our own agency rather than being pawns in great power games,” says Dr Sharshenova.
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