Data wise, there is nothing big on the docket until Friday’s U.S. payrolls number. Wednesday’s U.S. release of the minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting barely moved the markets.
It looks unlikely to have any spill over into Thursday’s trade, confirming that policymakers were on the cusp of easing this year, and saw the battle against runaway inflation as all but won.
“While acknowledging inflation pressures have diminished, they still have to move more carefully to ensure orchestrate the soft-landing that everyone has bought into,” Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management in Minneapolis, said in a client note.
CPI data next week will show whether they are on base. But for percolating market incentives, the mid-month start of U.S. Q4 earnings release period could help determine whether the S&P 500 takes a run at setting a record high it fell just short of marking last week.
Fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings are forecast to rise 5.2%, which is lower than the 11% growth estimate from Oct. 1, according to LSEG data. For 2024 year-over-year earnings are expected to rise 11.1%.
The S&P 500 was down 0.6% in late afternoon trade and the Nasdaq was off more than 1.0%, with big tech and chip stocks leading the way. The dollar rose to a two-week high against the yen and ended up about 0.9%. Versus the yuan, it rose to its highest price since Dec. 13.
