China’s hydroelectric generation was depressed throughout 2022 and 2023 by a prolonged drought across southern provinces, forcing the country to rely heavily on coal as electricity demand bounced back in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, pushing emissions to a record high.
But hydro generation is likely to rebound in 2024 if higher rainfall allows the country to make full use of massive new dams commissioned over the last three years. Combined with the massive deployment of solar generation, resurgent hydro is likely to cap coal consumption this year.
China’s southern provinces account for just a third of its total land area but more than 80% of its water resources and a similar share of hydroelectric generation, making rainfall across the south and southwest critical for electricity supply.
Summer monsoon rains across the south in 2022 and again in 2023 were far below normal, resulting in a sharp drop in river levels and forcing the region to revert to coal-fired units and expensive imported natural gas to keep the lights on, while aluminium smelters and other intensive power users were forced to suspend operations.
In 2024, however, the spring rains have already arrived earlier than usual and been exceptionally heavy, resulting in floods across Guangdong but also recharging the main hydro generation rivers.
China is by far the world’s largest generator from both coal and hydro, so southern rainfall has an impact on coal burning and emissions at a global scale.
In 2023, drought pushed global energy-related emissions to a record high. But if the drought breaks, as seems likely, and solar generation continues to climb, emissions could see a small but symbolically important fall in 2024.
