The eruption in Tonga in January was the largest ever instrumentally recorded and if it had gone on longer or released more ash or gas, the global shockwaves could have been devastating. Picture: Maxar Technologies via AP
Climate change “whiplash” from huge volcanic eruptions would exacerbate extreme weather patterns, one of Ireland’s foremost experts has said — as Cambridge researchers warn the world is “woefully underprepared” for such events.
The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) warned in the journal that there is a misconception the risks of major eruptions of potentially lethal volcanoes are low, and accordingly, there has been apathy when it comes to preparing for it.
The risk of major volcanic damage is far greater than the low chance of an asteroid hit, the researchers said.
“Data gathered from ice cores on the frequency of eruptions over deep time suggests there is a one-in-six chance of a magnitude seven explosion in the next one hundred years. That’s a roll of the dice.
“Such gigantic eruptions have caused abrupt climate change and collapse of civilisations in the distant past,” global risk expert Dr Lara Mani said.
Hundreds of millions of dollars are pumped into asteroid threats every year, yet there is a severe lack of global financing and coordination for volcano preparedness, she added.
The eruption in Tonga in January was the largest ever instrumentally recorded, and the Cambridge researchers said if it had gone on longer, and released more ash and gas, or occurred in an area full of critical infrastructure such as the Mediterranean, then global shock waves could have been devastating.
An eruption 10 to 100 times larger than Tonga occurs once every 625 years, twice as often as had been previously thought, the researchers said.
Co-author of the paper Dr Mike Cassidy said: “The last magnitude seven eruption was in 1815 in Indonesia. An estimated 100,000 people died locally, and global temperatures dropped by a degree on average, causing mass crop failures that led to famine, violent uprisings and epidemics in what was known as the year without summer.”
Financial losses could reach multi-trillions, the researchers said.
Maynooth University professor of geography (climate change), Peter Thorne previously told the that major volcanic eruptions would be “horrible”.
“Historical volcanoes have been associated with plagues, years without a summer, mass starvation — it is not something you would wish. A major eruption of the likes of Katla volcano in Iceland would perversely exacerbate the climate change that we are dealing with right now.
“That is because we’re trying to adapt to a climate that is rapidly changing, and then we would have climate go in the opposite direction for two or three years, only to rebound again. It is that whiplash that would be horrible,” he said.
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