Fears of Russian pressure on Belarus are not unjustified. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for 28 years with Russia’s political and economic support. In 2020, the Kremlin helped him survive the largest mass protests in the country’s history, following a presidential election that the opposition and the West denounced as rigged. Still, Belarus has repeatedly rejected speculation that it would send its own soldiers to fight alongside Russia.
The entry of Belarusian forces into the conflict would mark a new escalation. Dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin’s main ally, has begun to make moves. After many pro-Russian actions such as not voting in favour of EU sanctions against Russia, nor condemning the annexations of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the Belarusian ruler, although it has not been specified how many Russian soldiers will form part of this new force, stated that the Belarusian army and its “approximately 70,000 people” will be the “base” of this new bulwark.
The main purpose of the Minsk-Moscow union is to defend the borders of its neighbouring countries, especially from any attack by Zelensky’s armed forces. The deployment of troops by the two states follows the announcement by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who accused Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine of preparing “terrorist attacks and popular uprisings” in Belarus.
In his defence, Alexander Lukashenko said that Kiev is plotting to attack Belarus, and warned Ukraine not to attack “even one metre of our territory with dirty hands”, as he told Belarusian news agency Belta. His Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin also warned Ukraine not to provoke Belarus, saying: “We don’t want to fight”, yet a day later emphasised that the joint force is for defence.
Alexander Lukashenko also announced that he had agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the creation of such a grouping. “In view of the worsening situation on the western borders of the State Union, we agreed to deploy a regional (military) grouping” of the two countries, the Belarusian dictator said.
Although the allied country claims that these are only defensive forces, the truth is that Ukraine fears that, as has happened in the past, Belarus is becoming a reservoir of Russian troops ready to attack at any moment. Victor Tumar, a representative of the Armed Forces General Staff, said that this is an “exclusively defensive” project, while calls are growing for Minsk to cease cooperation with Vladimir Putin’s regime, as Ukraine accuses Russia of wanting to drag Belarus into war.
“We emphasise once again that the task of the Regional Force Grouping is purely defensive. And that all activities carried out so far were aimed at providing a sufficient response to actions near our borders,” Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin was quoted as saying in a statement last week. Troops from Belarus would probably move west and attack the cities of Lviv and Lutsk, key transport hubs for Western military supplies, said Oleh Zhdanov, a Ukrainian military analyst.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of wanting to “drag Belarus into war” and called for an international observer mission to the G7 on the border between his country and its northern neighbour, accusing Belarus of complicity in the ongoing Russian military campaign by ceding its territory to the invading army to launch attacks in the neighbouring country. Subsequently, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on Minsk to stop supporting Russia’s “special military operation”. 
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