Vladimir Putin has issued a video statement on the Kremlin website – but avoided any mention of the Wagner mutiny. Meanwhile, the whereabouts of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin remain unknown although it’s believed he has been banished to Belarus.
Monday 26 June 2023 14:34, UK
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By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor
Russia’s failed mutiny will have consequences for the war in Ukraine, even if they do not play out immediately.
First the fate of Wagner. The mercenary army was taking time out from the war after its exertions at Bakhmut but was heading back soon.
The future of its fighters is now unclear. If they are swallowed up into the Russian army, as seems the terms of the deal, Moscow loses one of its most effective if mercurial fighting forces.
Wagner was expected to take up a rapid reaction role to neutralise any breakthrough by Ukrainian forces. Losing that capability would weaken the Russians at a crucial moment in this war as Kyiv’s counteroffensive picks up momentum.
Then there’s the fate of the two men Prighozhin launched his mutiny to oust: Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.
Shoigu is a securocrat, not a military man, and critics say it has shown. Gerasimov is a real soldier, but his performance has not been stellar either.
A more effective commander, General Sergey Surovikin, is waiting in the wings.
He earned the name General Armageddon leading Russia’s brutal campaign in Syria. He briefly commanded the war in Ukraine withdrawing forces to the defensive positions they hold now.
He would be a more formidable enemy for the Ukrainians.
He was one of the generals who appealed on television to Wagnerites to stand down over the weekend and he may hope that loyalty is now rewarded.
But Putin is hamstrung. He may want to replace Mr Shoigu and Mr Gerasimov with more competent commanders but doing so now risks looking weak.
It would be giving into Prigozhin’s demands. The pair may stay in place for now. That will suit the strategists in Kyiv very well.
The UK is preparing for a range of scenarios that may unfold as a result of the instability caused by the Wagner Group’s mutiny in Russia, Rishi Sunak has said.
Culminating a bitter feud, warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin’s troops were just 120 miles (193.12 km) from Moscow before he called off the uprising after a deal brokered with the Kremlin.
Asked if he agrees with the US assessment that the attack shows “real cracks” in Vladimir Putin’s regime, the prime minister: “Yes, I’ve spoken to the leader of the United States, but also France and Germany over the weekend.
“It’s a situation that we’ve been monitoring for some time, in the instability that will be caused by Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.”
He added that it is “too early to predict” what might happen as a result.
“But of course we are prepared, as we always would be, for a range of scenarios,” he said.
NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has said the repercussions of the Wagner rebellion are being “monitored closely” by his organisation and that the attempted coup outlines the fragility of Russian leadership.
Speaking to reporters in Lithuania, Mr Stoltenberg said: “We see the weakness of the Russian regime and it also demonstrates how difficult and dangerous it is for President Putin to be relying on mercenaries.”
“It is hard to predict what exactly what will happen in the next days and weeks, but we should not make the mistake [of] underestimating the Russians,” he added.
Earlier, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said the attempted rebellion showed “real cracks” in Vladimir Putin’s authority.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak agreed with this, and said it was an example of the instability caused by Russia’s invasion “coming to the fore”.
Still, like Mr Stoltenberg, he said it would be “hard to predict” what happens next.
Our military experts and senior correspondents have been answering your questions on the Ukraine war.
Today’s question is from Elenor, who asks: How likely is it that Yevgeny Prigozhin could lead a Russian advance from Belarus somewhere down the line?
Military expert Sean Bell has given his answer below…
Perhaps inevitably, the fallout from Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed “march for justice” towards Moscow this past weekend raises more questions than answers.
Given Prigozhin’s experience it is hard to believe that he would march on Moscow with the intent of overthrowing President Putin, which raises the question of why did he do it?
One explanation is that Putin is pre-positioning Prigozhin and his Wagner group of mercenaries ready to follow their success (albeit slow and at great human cost) at taking Bakhmut by conducting a fresh wave of attacks against Kyiv.
Belarus is closer to Kyiv than Russia, and thus an attack from there might offer a greater element of surprise.
However, although this explanation for Prigozhin’s fate has some merit, it does rather ignore some harsh realities.
First, if Putin had wanted to move the Wagner Group to Belarus, he could have done that relatively easily, and under the radar, which would have maintained an element of surprise – an essential ingredient for successful military operations.
Second, Prigozhin’s growing frustration with the Russian military leadership and his subsequent “march on Moscow” was deeply damaging for President Putin’s authority.
For the first time we saw Putin vulnerable, and that has been a shock not only to the Russian military and general population, but also to Putin himself.
Third, if this was stage-managed, why would the Russian military open fire on the Prigozhin convoy, and why would the Russian air force lose seven helicopters and up to 13 aviators in the process.
There is often a danger that we overthink the background to such scenarios.
What is most likely is that Prigozhin let his frustration at the forthcoming deadline for his forces to be subsumed into the Russian regular army spill over and decided to vent his ire at the military leadership of Gerasimov and Shoigu.
He gambled that the regular Russian military would support him – which they did at least initially – but when it became apparent that his actions would be futile, he needed a way out. That was brokered by Belarusian President Lukashenko.
We can only speculate as to the incentives offered to Prigozhin – after all, Putin would do almost anything to retain his grip on power. But, having had his fingers burnt by Prigozhin, it is hard to imagine that Putin would make the same mistake again.
However, the whole episode leaves many questions unanswered, and I suspect we have not heard the last of Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The head of the Ukrainian government’s military intelligence service Kyrylo Budanov has warned that Russia has prepared an attack on the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia.
At the end of last week, Mr Budanov indicated that Russian forces had mined away the plant’s cooling ponds and moved vehicles loaded with explosives to power units.
Despite the repeated “threatening rhetoric”, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said it’s unlikely the Russians would sabotage the plant given the risks involved.
An attack on the plant “would potentially be more detrimental to Russian forces on the southern bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir than to Ukrainian forces on the opposite bank,” the US think tank said.
It added that, given examples of Russian willingness to put their own troops in danger, it “cannot rule out” any potential sabotage on the facility.
While all appears calm in the Kremlin with Vladimir Putin seemingly carrying on with business as usual after Wagner’s rebellion, on the streets of Russia people have shared their concerns about Saturday’s events.
“We were so affected we did not sleep,” one man said, adding that he did not believe what was happening.
A woman said she was “very worried” and doesn’t want to see a repeat of the events in the future.
By Tamara Cohen, political correspondent
A statement on the UK government’s assessment of developments in Russia this weekend will be delivered at around 3.30pm by the foreign secretary.
After a dramatic 24-hour mutiny by the Wagner Group, there is much discussion among analysts about whether it is the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin. But some defence sources I’ve spoken to urge caution.
We will be looking out for whether James Cleverly and others echo the language used by US secretary of state Antony Blinken this weekend.
Mr Blinken said the attempted rebellion by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin “raises profound questions, shows real cracks” in Vladimir Putin’s authority.
However, Mr Blinken told CBS it was “too early” to predict what impact the mutiny could have on the Kremlin.
As the rebellion gathered pace on Saturday, the Ministry of Defence said on its official Twitter feed that “this represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times” but that how it played out would depend on the loyalty of Russia’s security forces and army.
Some in government have been cautioning that talk of a Russian collapse is premature.
Ex-MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger said in a radio interview this morning that Putin was “significantly weakened”, but ultimately, Prigozhin did not have enough men to carry out a coup, so Putin could “hang around for a long time”.
“I think it rapidly became clear, particularly when the shooting began, that he [Prigozhin] didn’t really have any prospect of succeeding. No one was going to join him,” he said.
Chair of the Defence Select Committee Tobias Ellwood told Sky News that Prigozhin had, for the Russian people, busted some myths of the invasion, posting a video that said the war was based on lies and making blistering criticism of Russia’s generals.
The government is closely watching for any changes to Putin’s top personnel, including defence minister Shoigu and head of the military General Gerasimov, but the message from ministers today is likely to be watching and waiting, as any power shift could be slow to play out.
More details have emerged about the Wagner Group’s 24-hour mutiny at the weekend.
As the mercenary fighters moved north from the city of Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow, Vladimir Putin reportedly refused to speak to their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on the phone.
The Kremlin turned to negotiations involving Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Office Anton Vaino, and Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.
Russian sources claimed the first Wagner column that began moving towards the capital consisted of 350 pieces of equipment, including nine tanks, four Tigr infantry fighting vehicles, a Grad MLRS system, and a howitzer, it added.
After a deal was struck, and Prigozhin’s men started to leave the city, a prominent Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel shared an AI-generated image of him holding a finger to his lips and stating “plans love silence”, the ISW said.
The phrase is commonly used in Ukraine about operational security.
Vladimir Putin has issued his first statement since the Wagner Group’s 24-hour mutiny on Saturday.
In a video uploaded to the Kremlin website, the Russian president failed to mention the assault in the message and instead congratulated the participants of an industrial forum.
It was not immediately clear when or where his statement was recorded.
He has also held a phone call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who expressed full support for the Russian leadership, according to Interfax.
Analysis by our Moscow correspondent Diana Magnay earlier suggested we could see more of Putin’s “business as usual” diary appointments as the aftermath of Prigozhin’s assault continues.
Russia’s prime minister has urged people to rally around Vladimir Putin after the Wagner Group’s aborted mutiny.
In what appeared to be the first public comments by a senior Russian official since the mercenary fighters started to withdraw, Mikhail Mishustin said the country had faced “a challenge to its stability” and must remain united.
“The main thing in these conditions is to ensure the sovereignty and independence of our country, the security and wellbeing of citizens,” he said.
“For this, the consolidation of the whole of society is especially important; we need to act together, as one team, and maintain the unity of all forces, rallying around the president,” he said.
His comments came after Putin said on Saturday that the rebellion by the Wagner force had threatened Russia’s very existence.
The Russian president has not publicly commented on the dramatic events since then.
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