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By Gabriel Gavin
23-08-2022
People take part in an anti-war manifestation under the slogan ‘For Your and Our Freedom’, on the occasion of the Belarusian Freedom Day, in Gdansk, northern Poland, 27 March 2022. The Belarusian Freedom Day is an unofficial holiday in Belarus celebrated on 25 March to commemorate the declaration of independence by the Belarusian Democratic Republic on that date in 1918. [EPA-EFE/ADAM WARZAWA]
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Putin’s opponents across Eastern Europe are eyeing his invasion as a chance to release his grip on their countries as well, writes Gabriel Gavin.
Gabriel Gavin is a British journalist covering Eurasian politics and society.
Two years ago this month, Belarusian social media channels started lighting up with tips and advice on how to deal with the police. “My building’s door code is below – you can hide in my apartment,” one activist wrote. “Wash your eyes with milk, not water. It neutralises the tear gas,” another chimed in.
Just days before, the country’s veteran leader Aleksandr Lukashenka had declared a landslide victory in his sixth presidential election, despite allegations of brazen electoral fraud. At one polling station, a government worker was filmed climbing out of the window and down a ladder with a bag full of votes. At the same time, across the city, locals found piles of dumped ballots for his opponent, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, burned around the edges.
Hundreds of thousands of ordinary people protested against the result in what would become the former Soviet Republic’s largest ever political crisis. A ring of steel closed around Lukashenka’s gaudy palace in the capital, Minsk, while his fearsome OMON riot police beat and detained more than 33,000 citizens.
Having governed the country since the fall of the USSR, his government looked more precarious until its longstanding ally Russia stepped in, offering cash and soldiers to prop it up. Within days, the leaders of the opposition were either languishing in jail cells or fleeing abroad, including Tsikhanouskaya, who fled to Poland.
With Moscow embroiled in its increasingly bloody and catastrophic war in Ukraine, Lukashenka’s critics are optimistic that real change could finally be on the horizon.
“Lukashenka made our country complicit in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and Belarus became the launch pad for Russian missiles and tanks,” Tsikhanouskaya told me in an interview. “But in Belarus, very few people support this war. We don’t see Ukraine as the enemy, and we understand that Lukashenka has become a puppet in Vladimir Putin’s hands.”
For decades, the man labelled “Europe’s last dictator” excelled at playing off his neighbours against each other, securing investment and concessions from the EU and Moscow. His relative independence, however, has since come to an abrupt end, and Western nations have hit Belarus with sanctions in response to the crackdown on his opponents. Now, to stay in power, he has been forced to get closer and closer to Russia, becoming one of Putin’s most regular visitors in recent months.
Despite the short-term benefits, that’s a dangerous deal for Lukashenka to make. “The Kremlin doesn’t see Belarus as an independent state at all – for them, it’s just another region of Russia,” Tsikhanouskaya says, “so we also have to fight for our independence and our very existence.”
According to her, outrage over the invasion has revitalised the country’s opposition movement, which had faded into the background after its leaders were locked up or forced to flee. “On the first weekend after the war began, thousands took to the streets in the biggest protests since the 2020 uprising,” the 39-year-old former English teacher says.
“More than 30,000 have now joined the partisan movement, more than 80 acts of sabotage have been carried out on the railways to halt Russian equipment. Hundreds joined Ukraine’s military and formed Belarusian battalions – these people are defending the good name of Belarus. Some people from the regime, military officers, immediately defected and moved to the EU,” Tsikhanouskaya says.
Many Belarus’ street protest veterans have since signed up to fight alongside their Ukrainian counterparts to defend the neighbouring nation. The Kastus Kalinouski battalion, named for a 19th-Century Belarusian revolutionary who attempted to gain independence from Russia, has been one of the most prominent recruiters. “Several thousand more have applied to join us through our online recruitment tool,” Vadim Kabanchuk, one of its commanders, told the Voice of America news network in April.
For many of those on the frontlines, the two conflicts may feel like part of the same battle. Russia’s refusal to allow Kyiv to determine its future democratically will feel grimly familiar for those Belarusians who voted for change in August 2020, only to see Lukashenka kept in power by Moscow regardless.
And yet, Ukraine also holds a cautionary tale for those hoping the war might precipitate Lukashenko’s end. Putin and his government have been targeted with unprecedented sanctions that eclipse even the restrictions imposed on Belarusian officials and state industries. Despite that, there is little sign that the Kremlin will change course or that popular pressure will force the Russian president out of office.
That shouldn’t mean the US and EU give up on sanctions, Tsikhanouskaya insists. “Lukashenko’s regime is like a chair with three legs: money, repressions, and support from Russia. If one leg collapses, the chair falls down. He is one of the primary beneficiaries of the war and is using it to intensify repressions and stay in power. Therefore, my recommendation would be to maximise pressure on him, not to let him hide behind Putin’s back.”
“On one hand, he is glad the world is focusing on Ukraine at the moment, and he is enjoying impunity. But on the other, his regime is extremely fragile and insecure.”
In recent weeks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas have called for restrictions that would bar ordinary Russians from entering the EU due to the war. In contrast, others have argued they should apply to Belarusians as well. However, Tsikhanouskaya cautions against the prospect of “isolating” her countrymen with sanctions and wants Brussels to provide “more assistance programs, more visas and openness to ordinary people and those who fight the regime. Europe for Belarus means safety, and it means prosperity. It means independence, ultimately.”
The only Belarusians still able to keep the fight alive are those living abroad, mainly within the EU, and it is clear the authorities in Minsk fear their influence. The dramatic kidnapping of one opposition blogger, Roman Protasevich, and his Russian girlfriend, Sofia Sapega, sparked outrage worldwide in 2021.
A bomb threat, which appears to have been concocted by Belarus’ security services, forced their Ryanair flight to land in Minsk while flying between Greece and Lithuania. He has since been paraded as a propaganda tool, making a teary apology to Lukashenka in a video where he appeared to have been tortured.
Those Belarusians who have managed to leave are determined to avoid the same fate, and few of those fighting in Ukraine will be able to dream of returning home until Lukashenko is gone. However, domestic discontent with his rule will be vital in ousting him if and when the opportunity arises.
After two years of brutal crackdowns and now with a war raging on their doorstep, Tsikhanouskaya argues, far fewer of her fellow citizens are prepared to accept living in Russia’s sphere of influence. “The Kremlin has already lost Ukraine,” she says, “it will definitely lose Belarus”.
Languages: Deutsch