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Updated: January 30, 2023 @ 2:59 am
Despite what some may think, history never fully repeats itself; but I do wish Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine were like Napoleon’s huge, cumbrous, and ultimately vulnerable army that marched into … Russia! Back in 1812…
Prior to that invasion, there had been much gleeful overestimation on Napoleon’s part re the verve of his polyglot troops. And much underestimation of Russia and its defenders, including the lowest of the low, the myriad serfs in that land, who supposedly awaited liberation; and the highest, too, Tsar Alexander I.
But how far does the analogy go today?
Unfortunately, not far enough. Yes, Putin’s generals masterminding this Ukraine incursion also overestimated the strength, patriotism, and organizational skills of their army and its soldiers. And yes, Vlad and top advisors didn’t foresee the vigor of Ukraine’s gallant, heroic resistance that miraculously endures as we speak. They also underestimated the leadership qualities of Mr. Zelensky, ironically resembling Tsar Alexander in the early 1800s.
But still the analogy fails to hold up. For openers, Napoleon had nothing like the plane-delivering bombs, cruise missiles, mines, explosive drones and other sophisticated weapons that make even a bad army look good. He couldn’t just avoid human losses by flinging such things from afar, wrecking an entire country and its vital infrastructure. Even the latter didn’t exist in 1812; heck, the railway wasn’t yet invented, the steamship hadn’t overturned the age of sail, and of course electric grids were far in the future. So Napoleon and his vulnerable troops, moving forward either on foot or horses, had to endure a scorched earth strategy in the giant country they were trying to absorb. They couldn’t really destroy; instead, they got progressively destroyed themselves, or at least attenuated.
Then came the first set-piece battle near Moscow; and following what was basically a costly draw, killing quite a number of Bonaparte’s generals, the French side next spent too much time in the deliberately burned-down city itself. There wasn’t even a convenience store open for munchies!
All this before the long, ponderous trip back toward Poland and home, accompanied by the early onset of … “General Winter!” And there again, any analogies to today’s Ukrainian situation don’t really work.
Back in 1812 Bonaparte’s ill-clad and now freezing troops even cut open their horses’ bellies for warmth, as the Russian winter became ever more lethal. What was left of Napoleon’s army got gravely diminished by the elements, but also by death and wounds inflicted by guerilla-like Cossacks. (Not much different from Russia’s current Wagner group or the vicious Chechens Putin’s been using to do his dirty work in Ukraine.)
Speaking of winter, there’s no question that unlike in Russia back then, today’s gallant defenders in Ukraine are now suffering most from its implacable onslaught. Of course it’s hard for us to feel what it’s like to resist an invader when your heat’s off for weeks or months, your food supply’s spotty, your windows are blown out, etc.
True, the giant blizzard that afflicted our region over Christmas did give us a bit of a comparative sense of what poor Ukraine must be going through during this season over there. A bit only…
Back to the main thread. In the West many ardently wish, as I do, that Putin’s Russians would somehow pay the kinds of prices Napoleon’s vast army did two centuries ago. That there would be a real comeuppance for an invasion that ultimately proved ill-conceived and downright disastrous.
In fact, Bonaparte himself had been warned beforehand by saner heads, especially the man who procured horses, etc. for his entourage, the Duke of Caulaincourt. But nobody dared warn Putin sufficiently, including our current occupant of the Oval Office. And even now, despite some serious losses, Vlad and his charges simply haven’t suffered enough to give it all up.
For Napoleon, by contrast, the 1812 debacle was the beginning of the end for his extensive empire, and for this military icon himself. For Putin and his Russians we’ve still got to inflict every darned sanction possible, and proffer a Ukraine that’s on its heels all military aid and other materiel the country needs, and still … it may not be enough.
Unfortunately …
B.B. Singer has taught at several area colleges including Niagara University.
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