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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Col. Mackubin Thomas Owens (Ret), MINDSETTER™
In his 2013 New York Times review of Christopher Caldwell’s splendid book on the outbreak of World War I, The Sleepwalkers, Harold Evans provides this summary: “The participants were conditioned to keep walking along a precipitous escarpment, sure of their own moral compass, but unknowingly impelled by a complex interaction of deep-rooted cultures, patriotism and paranoia, sediments of history and folk memory, ambition and intrigue. They were, in Clark’s term, ‘sleepwalkers, watchful but unseeing, haunted by dreams, yet blind to the reality of the horror they were about to bring into the world.’” As we consider the current situation in Ukraine, is it possible that today’s actors are following in the footsteps of their forebears in 1914?
Vladimir Putin PHOTO: file
Recently, Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary-General of NATO, stated that there is a “real possibility” that the war in Ukraine could spill over into a full-scale conflict between NATO and Russia, “I fear that the war in Ukraine will get out of control, and spread into a major war between NATO and Russia.” The danger is encapsulated in this headline from the Times of London: “Pentagon gives Ukraine green light for drone strikes inside Russia.”
The Times story continues: “Since daily assaults on civilians began in October, the Pentagon has revised its threat assessment of the war in Ukraine. Crucially, this includes new judgments about whether arms shipments to Kyiv might lead to a military confrontation between Russia and NATO…If the US decides to supply Ukraine with longer-range weapons capable of striking deeper into Russia, the fear of potential escalation could increase dramatically. But Pentagon officials have made it clear that requests from Kyiv for longer-range US weapons, including rockets and fighter bombers which could be used for even more effective strikes inside Russia or occupied Crimea, are being seriously considered.”
Its earlier offensives having been repeatedly stymied by the Ukrainians supplied with NATO weapons and casualties mounting, Russia has doubled down on its drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian civilians and energy infrastructure. The desire to aid Ukraine in repelling Russian aggression is understandable, but our policymakers have to ask themselves if we, like the European leaders of 1914, are sleepwalking into a war, the possible consequences of which are disproportionate to US interests, especially in light of threats to these interests in the Pacific. As a number of commentators have observed, US weapons stocks have run dangerously low as we provide aid to Ukraine.
I have been arguing for some time that the greatest danger arising from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is miscalculation. Sleepwalkers are especially prone to miscalculation.
America’s Celebrity Culture and “Merchants of Death”
I am happy for Brittney Griner and her family. But I am not thrilled about the price the United States paid for her freedom. She was swapped for international arms trader, Viktor Bout, a former Soviet military officer and favorite of the Russian president Vladimir Putin. Bout, given the unimaginative sobriquet “merchant of death,” was serving a 25-year prison sentence in the United States on charges of conspiring to kill Americans, acquire and export anti-aircraft missiles, and providing material support to a terrorist organization.
Some have criticized Griner for what they perceive as her disdain for her country. When it came to her swap, should this have mattered? I don’t think so. She has the same rights as all Americans, which included the right to criticize her country. I think she’s wrong but that doesn’t justify her being held hostage by Russia on a bogus charge.
Of course, there are instances in which swaps are made for individuals who are not deserving. A case in point is the Obama administration’s decision to trade five Taliban captives for an Army deserter, Bowe Bergdahl. Despite the claim of Obama’s national security adviser, Susan Rice, that he had “served with honor and distinction,” Bergdahl abandoned his post in Afghanistan and essentially defected to the enemy.
Others have criticized the prisoner swap for leaving behind Paul Whelan, a former Marine whom Russia also detained on bogus charges. The real problem here is what it says about America’s obsession with celebrity culture. Although only a third-tier celebrity at best, Griner was prominent enough to benefit from her celebrity status, a status Whelan lacks.
Former President Trump’s secretary of State, Mike Pompeo got to the heart of the matter in a recent Fox News appearance: “We [in the Trump administration] weren’t going to trade bad guys for celebrities because it creates the wrong incentives for the bad guys as we go forward. It's not good for American national security. It's not good for people who are traveling across the world.”
Mackubin Owens is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He previously served as editor of Orbis: FPRI’s Journal of World Affairs (2008-2020). From 2015 until March of 2018, he was Dean of Academic Affairs and Professor at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. From 1987 until 2014, he was Professor of National Security Affairs at the US Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island.
He is also a Marine Corps veteran of Vietnam, where as an infantry platoon and company commander in 1968-1969, he was wounded twice and awarded the Silver Star medal. He retired from the Marine Corps Reserve as a Colonel in 1994.
Owens is the author of the FPRI monograph Abraham Lincoln: Leadership and Democratic Statesmanship in Wartime (2009) and US Civil-Military Relations after 9/11: Renegotiating the Civil-Military Bargain (Continuum Press, January 2011) and coauthor of US Foreign Policy and Defense Strategy: The Rise of an Incidental Superpower (Georgetown University Press, spring 2015). He is also completing a book on the theory and practice of US civil-military relations for Lynne-Rienner. He was co-editor of the textbook, Strategy and Force Planning, for which he also wrote several chapters, including “The Political Economy of National Security,” “Thinking About Strategy,” and “The Logic of Strategy and Force Planning.”
Owens’s articles on national security issues and American politics have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, International Security, Orbis, Joint Force Quarterly, The Public Interest, The Weekly Standard, The Washington Examiner, Defence Analysis, US Naval Institute Proceedings, Marine Corps Gazette, Comparative Strategy, National Review, The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor; The Los Angeles Times, the Jerusalem Post, The Washington Times, and The New York Post. And, he formerly wrote for the Providence Journal.
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