Sudan + 3 more
Conflict and high food prices drive high food assistance needs in 2023
KEY MESSAGES
Persistently severe macroeconomic conditions, as well as localized intercommunal conflict, are expected to continue to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Sudan, despite above-average cereal production this year. Low foreign currency reserves, depreciation of the local currency, and high imported and local food and non-food commodity prices are all contributing to excessively high inflation, while income-earning opportunities remain low, resulting in low household purchasing power. Levels of acute food insecurity are expected to deteriorate further after the lean season begins in late April, and food assistance needs are expected to peak in August and September, when household stocks are exhausted, dependence on markets for food increases, and prices rise seasonally.
The areas of highest concern include areas hosting large numbers of internally displaced people (IDP); areas with large conflict-affected populations in parts of Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile states; and areas of marginal agricultural production in the Red Sea, North Darfur, North Kordofan, and northern Kassala states. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Abyei Administrative Area, where renewed conflict has resulted in recent displacement, a considerable loss of household food and income sources, and challenges to humanitarian access.
Cereal production this year is estimated to be 45 percent higher than last year and about 13 percent above the five-year average, according to the FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission. The increase is due to favorable weather conditions that contributed to improved yields, as well as a significant shift in production from cash crops – which incur higher production costs – to less resource-intensive cereal crops. Cash crop production, on the other hand, is estimated to be lower than last year and the five-year average due to the significant decrease in area planted. Cash crop production has been negatively affected by marketing and export difficulties since last year; atypically low prices that offer insufficient profits to invest in the high cost of production; the shortage and high cost of agricultural inputs; and limited access to agricultural financing this year. Overall, the significantly higher-than-normal costs of production have undercut household income from crop sales and eroded the benefits of the above-average harvest for many households.
During the ongoing post-harvest season, staple food prices showed mixed trends across most markets in Sudan. In February, some consumer markets showed earlier-than-usual price increases, while other consumer markets registered general stability in prices; meanwhile, some production markets have shown a decline in prices since September 2022. Rising food prices during the post-harvest period are related to the persistent weak value of the Sudanese Pound (SDG) and the high costs of production and transportation, leading many larger farmers to withhold some of their stocks until later in the season when prices will be even higher. Overall, staple food prices remain, on average, around 95 percent higher than last year’s prices and over four times higher than the five-year average. At the same time, household income is stagnating, contributing to low purchasing power.
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