Sudan
Below-average harvest, import shortages, and high food prices drive high needs through the lean season
Key Messages
Sudan is expected to face high humanitarian assistance needs through September 2022 due to the macroeconomic crisis and below-average harvest driving high food prices and declining household purchasing power. Conflict during the upcoming agricultural season is likely to increase the number of displaced households in Darfur. The number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worse outcomes is expected to remain high, particularly among IDP households, refugees, and poor pastoral, agropastoral, and urban households affected by a below-average harvest and low purchasing power.
The 2020/22 winter season wheat harvest continues across most wheat-producing areas but is being negatively impacted by high labor and transportation costs. The harvest is estimated to be around 600,000 MT, around 13 percent lower than the five-year average. To compensate farmers for the high cost of production and the devaluation of the SDG and to encourage selling products to the Agricultural Bank of Sudan (ABS), the government has set the Salam price (preset price for in-kind payments of debts to the Agricultural Bank) at 43,000 SDG/90kg of wheat, which is 200-250 percent higher than last year.
In March and April, staple food prices have continued to unseasonally increase, attributed primarily to reduced market supplies following the below-average harvest, the extremely high production and transportation costs, the devaluation of the SDG, and the above-average demand for local wheat due to the high cost and shortages of imported wheat and wheat flour. In April 2022, staple food prices increased on average 10-15 percent compared to March and remained 200-250 percent higher than respective prices last year and over four to five times higher than the five-year average.
Available information suggests that at least 85,000 people have been displaced in Kereniek following intercommunal clashes in late April. Displaced households likely are facing large food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4), evidenced by reports of the complete loss of assets and IDPs eating green mangoes and sour gum. HFA plans suggest humanitarian partners are responding and are beginning to distribute food and non-food items. Additional information will be provided in future reports as more information becomes available.
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