Read this in The Manila Times digital edition.
ON Feb. 24, 2022, Russian forces breached the border of Ukraine to begin Vladimir Putin's “special military operation,” the flimsy camouflage for a full-scale invasion that was meant to pull Kyiv back into Moscow's orbit.
Putin was supremely confident that the Ukrainian military would be quickly overwhelmed, and the exercise would be over in a matter of weeks.
Close to a year later, the war rages on, with both sides taking heavy casualties. The Russian death toll ranges from 75,000 to a little more than 100,000. Ukraine has lost about 100,000 soldiers.
The civilian casualty figure is appalling: 6,884 killed and 10,947 injured, according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
At least 368,000 people have fled Ukraine into Poland and other neighboring countries, triggering one of Europe's biggest refugee crises.
The tide of war has ebbed and flowed, with neither side gaining significant advantage. This year, however, could see a dramatic shift as the conflict enters a more dangerous phase.
Earlier this week, the United States and Germany announced they would send battle tanks to Ukraine to help it drive back the invaders.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had campaigned passionately for the tanks, hailed the announcement as “an important step on the path to victory.”
Moscow, not surprisingly, was not exactly enthusiastic about the US and Germany's commitment, with the Russian ambassador to Germany calling it an “extremely dangerous decision” that “takes the conflict to a new level of confrontation.”
Oddly enough, the agreement to supply Kyiv with tanks has exposed its allies' lack of a single, firm policy on how to help it defeat the Russians.
Equipping the Ukrainian forces with tanks was not an option early on, because of the fear it could push Putin into committing more men and materiel into battle.
It was Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine, that first challenged the tank embargo, saying it was ready to provide Kyiv with German-made Leopards from its arsenal.
That put German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the hot seat. To ease the pressure, Scholz said he will only agree to sending Leopards to Ukraine if the US sends in M-1 Abrams tanks.
“We're talking about very effective weapons systems here, and it's proper that we never provide those weapons systems alone, but always in close cooperation,” Scholz explained.
In the end, US President Joe Biden had no choice but to fall in line. “These tanks are further evidence of our enduring, unflagging commitment to Ukraine and our confidence in the skill of Ukrainian forces,” Biden declared.
Germany pledged an initial 14 Leopards, and the US, 31 Abrams tanks.
It could, however, take months before the tanks are delivered.
“The time it would take to get there — to be able to build up the supply stockage, to deliver the vehicles, to train the crews, to train the mechanics, to gather everything you'd need — how long would that take? I don't know, but it ain't like 30 days, I can tell you that,” said retired US Army Gen. Robert B. Abrams, referring to the tank that was named after his father.
For now, Zelenskyy is happy that his country has a “tank coalition.”
Meanwhile, Putin ponders his countermove. And whatever it will be, it could only further escalate a war that has held the global economy hostage for most of 2022.
The Ukraine conflict has disrupted the flow of goods across the world, sending inflation, interest rates, commodity and energy prices into a spiral.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a slowdown in the global gross domestic product (GDP), from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022.
The impact cuts particularly deep among emerging markets and developing economies, according to the IMF. Projected GDP growth for Southeast Asian, to which the Philippines belongs, slipped to 4.9 percent in 2022 from 5.3 percent in 2021.
The agreement to supply Ukraine with tanks has shoved aside efforts to negotiate a diplomatic solution. And that can only mean the world will not be rid of its economic misery anytime soon.