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The government has created a roadmap to address various risks and problems that may be associated with future climate change in order to demonstrate its commitment to achieving net zero emissions (NZE) by 2060. The government is putting into practice five main principles in pursuit of the zero-emission target: increasing the use of new renewable energy (NRE), reducing the use of fossil fuels, promoting electric vehicles in the transportation sector, increasing the use of electricity in homes and businesses, and utilizing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
Due to the gap between the 2025 roadmap and the actual situation, the commitment to achieve net zero emissions is currently insufficient. The percentage of new and renewable energy, which is projected at 23 per cent in the 2025 roadmap released by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral/ESDM), has only achieved 12 per cent in actual utilization. As a result, careful and comprehensive preparation is required to be able to completely abandon fossil fuels or non-renewable energy sources. This can be caused by a number of factors, including the laws and regulations currently in place that govern new and renewable energy or RUU EBT, which has not been able to establish a strong, comprehensive legal basis and guarantee legal certainty.
In order to achieve energy independence and security and support sustainable national development, the national energy policy is meant to serve as a guideline for national energy management. The National Energy Policy (Kebijakan Energi Nasional/KEN), which was created by the National Energy Council (Dewan Energi Nasional/DEN) and approved by the President as Government Regulation (Peraturan Pemerintah/PP) Number 79 of 2014 concerning National Energy Policy, includes the 2025 road map. The NRE composition targets of 23 per cent in 2025 and 31 per cent in 2050, as well as the target for annual electricity consumption per person of 2,500 kWh in 2025 and 7,000 kWh in 2050, are the three points in the PP.
Although Indonesia has a 442 gigawatt potential for renewable energy, only 8.8 gigawatts were actually used in 2018. During the DEN Anugerah Webinar on October 20, 2022, in Jakarta, Satya Widya Yudha, a member of the National Energy Council (DEN), stated that fossil energy in the form of oil and natural gas is still needed for the optimization of the NRE mix as a transitional fuel and as a supporting fuel for NRE plants. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology, which can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from operations involving fossil fuels, is the technology being sought in the transition process. This indicates that fossil energy will continue to have a role in the transition to NRE through technological advancements made in geothermal, hydro, and wind power facilities, among others.
Also in accordance with Satya, the intermittent or discontinuous energy integration makes the usage of NRE less than ideal. When the amount of sunshine declines or diminishes, solar power plant (PLTS) power likewise declines. Similar to this, when the unpredictable water discharge prevents the water turbine from maximizing the use of hydraulic power, the issue of developing NRE is not resolved by the extensive use of geothermal or geothermal energy. Because of its numerous volcanoes, Indonesia actually contains a lot of geothermal potentials that, if properly utilized, might allow it to produce electricity the whole day long.
These conditions will certainly provide economic opportunities both regionally and globally with the decline in the price of EBT electricity production and the scarcity of fossil fuels that can be utilized at high prices. In order to achieve a zero-emission future, the electricity mix that uses NRE as the primary source of energy supply needs to be encouraged, especially in the electricity sector. Indonesia is estimated to need as much as 37 billion US dollars or equivalent to Rp 568 trillion if it has to stop 118 coal-fired power plant operations in the country. In fact, 60 per cent of Indonesia’s electricity sector is still produced from coal (PLTU) with 250,000 people working in the industry.
However, considering that a number of regions still rely on local revenue from the oil and gas sector and state assets in the steam power plant (PLTU) business are quite high, the process of Indonesia’s energy transition to NRE is overall rather problematic. Indonesian employees are among the lowest prepared in Southeast Asia for the NRE sector, far below Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore. The energy transition, however, still requires a continual process and takes a number of factors into consideration.
Additionally, the news of the carbon tax’s postponement, which was actually implemented in 2021 in article 13 of Law No. 7/2021, which states that the carbon tax goes into effect on April 1, 2022, may be violated by this postponement. It shows that the government is not serious about this energy transition. Supposedly, the distribution of revenue from the coal carbon tax can aid in the development of NRE technology in Indonesia so that the mobility of fossil fuels has a constructive effect for the sake of NRE readiness in Indonesia. Although the use and capital of fossil fuels are still necessary for Indonesia’s energy transition, there has not been any serious effort to figure out how to do so up until this point.
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Research Assistant at Islamic University of Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
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Climate change: WMO report urges faster action on transition to clean energy
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The global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing profound and long-lasting changes that have the potential to hasten the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system, according to the latest edition of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook.
Today’s energy crisis is delivering a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity. The biggest tremors have been felt in the markets for natural gas, coal and electricity – with significant turmoil in oil markets as well, necessitating two oil stock releases of unparalleled scale by IEA member countries to avoid even more severe disruptions. With unrelenting geopolitical and economic concerns, energy markets remain extremely vulnerable, and the crisis is a reminder of the fragility and unsustainability of the current global energy system, the World Energy Outlook 2022 (WEO) warns.
The WEO’s analysis finds scant evidence to support claims from some quarters that climate policies and net zero commitments contributed to the run-up in energy prices. In the most affected regions, higher shares of renewables were correlated with lower electricity prices – and more efficient homes and electrified heat have provided an important buffer for some consumers, albeit far from enough. The heaviest burden is falling on poorer households where a larger share of income is spent on energy.
Alongside short-term measures to try to shield consumers from the impacts of the crisis, many governments are now taking longer-term steps. Some are seeking to increase or diversify oil and gas supplies, and many are looking to accelerate structural changes. The most notable responses include the US Inflation Reduction Act, the EU’s Fit for 55 package and REPowerEU, Japan’s Green Transformation (GX) programme, Korea’s aim to increase the share of nuclear and renewables in its energy mix, and ambitious clean energy targets in China and India.
In the WEO’s Stated Policies Scenario, which is based on the latest policy settings worldwide, these new measures help propel global clean energy investment to more than USD 2 trillion a year by 2030, a rise of more than 50% from today. As markets rebalance in this scenario, the upside for coal from today’s crisis is temporary as renewables, supported by nuclear power, see sustained gains. As a result, a high point for global emissions is reached in 2025. At the same time, international energy markets undergo a profound reorientation in the 2020s as countries adjust to the rupture of Russia-Europe flows.
“Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not just for the time being, but for decades to come,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Even with today’s policy settings, the energy world is shifting dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system.”
For the first time ever, a WEO scenario based on today’s prevailing policy settings – in this case, the Stated Policies Scenario – has global demand for every fossil fuel exhibiting a peak or plateau. In this scenario, coal use falls back within the next few years, natural gas demand reaches a plateau by the end of the decade, and rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs) mean that oil demand levels off in the mid-2030s before ebbing slightly to mid-century. This means that total demand for fossil fuels declines steadily from the mid-2020s to 2050 by an annual average roughly equivalent to the lifetime output of a large oil field. The declines are much faster and more pronounced in the WEO’s more climate-focused scenarios.
Global fossil fuel use has grown alongside GDP since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century: putting this rise into reverse will be a pivotal moment in energy history. The share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix in the Stated Policies Scenario falls from around 80% to just above 60% by 2050. Global CO2 emissions fall back slowly from a high point of 37 billion tonnes per year to 32 billion tonnes by 2050. This would be associated with a rise of around 2.5 °C in global average temperatures by 2100, far from enough to avoid severe climate change impacts. Full achievement of all climate pledges would move the world towards safer ground, but there is still a large gap between today’s pledges and a stabilisation of the rise in global temperatures around 1.5 °C.
Today’s growth rates for deployment of solar PV, wind, EVs and batteries, if maintained, would lead to a much faster transformation than projected in the Stated Policies Scenario, although this would require supportive policies not just in the early leading markets for these technologies but across the world. Supply chains for some key technologies – including batteries, solar PV and electrolysers – are expanding at rates that support greater global ambition. If all announced manufacturing expansion plans for solar PV see the light of day, manufacturing capacity would exceed the deployment levels in the Announced Pledges Scenario in 2030 by around 75%. In the case of electrolysers for hydrogen production, the potential excess of capacity of all announced projects is around 50%.
Stronger policies will be essential to drive the huge increase in energy investment that is needed to reduce the risks of future price spikes and volatility, according to this year’s WEO. Subdued investment due to lower prices in the 2015-2020 period made the energy sector much more vulnerable to the sort of disruptions we have seen in 2022. While clean energy investment rises above USD 2 trillion by 2030 in the States Policies Scenario, it would need to be above USD 4 trillion by the same date in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, highlighting the need to attract new investors to the energy sector. And major international efforts are still urgently required to narrow the worrying divide in clean energy investment levels between advanced economies and emerging and developing economies.
“The environmental case for clean energy needed no reinforcement, but the economic arguments in favour of cost-competitive and affordable clean technologies are now stronger – and so too is the energy security case. Today’s alignment of economic, climate and security priorities has already started to move the dial towards a better outcome for the world’s people and for the planet,” Dr Birol said.
“It is essential to bring everyone on board, especially at a time when geopolitical fractures on energy and climate are all the more visible,” he said. “This means redoubling efforts to ensure that a broad coalition of countries has a stake in the new energy economy. The journey to a more secure and sustainable energy system may not be a smooth one. But today’s crisis makes it crystal clear why we need to press ahead.”
Russia has been by far the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, but its invasion of Ukraine is prompting a wholesale reorientation of global energy trade, leaving it with a much-diminished position. All Russia’s trade ties with Europe based on fossil fuels had ultimately been undercut in previous WEO scenarios by Europe’s net zero ambitions, but Russia’s ability to deliver at relatively low cost meant that it lost ground only gradually. Now the rupture has come with a speed that few imagined possible. Russian fossil fuel exports never return – in any of the scenarios in this year’s WEO – to the levels seen in 2021, with Russia’s reorientation to Asian markets particularly challenging in the case of natural gas. Russia’s share of internationally traded energy, which stood at close to 20% in 2021, falls to 13% in 2030 the Stated Policies Scenario, while the shares of both the United States and the Middle East rise.
For gas consumers, the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter promises to be a perilous moment and a testing time for EU solidarity – and the winter of 2023-24 could be even tougher. But in the longer term, one of the effects of Russia’s recent actions is that the era of rapid growth in gas demand draws to a close. In the Stated Policies Scenario, the scenario that sees the highest gas use, global demand rises by less than 5% between 2021 and 2030 and then remains flat through to 2050. Momentum behind gas in developing economies has slowed, notably in South and Southeast Asia, putting a dent in the credentials of gas as a transition fuel.
“Amid the major changes taking place, a new energy security paradigm is needed to ensure reliability and affordability while reducing emissions,” Dr Birol said. “That is why this year’s WEO provides 10 principles that can help guide policymakers through the period when declining fossil fuel and expanding clean energy systems co-exist, since both systems are required to function well during energy transitions in order to deliver the energy services needed by consumers. And as the world moves on from today’s energy crisis, it needs to avoid new vulnerabilities arising from high and volatile critical mineral prices or highly concentrated clean energy supply chains”
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The whole of Europe is suffering as a result of the energy crisis. For European countries, this is more than an economic crisis, it’s an existential crisis. Affected by the energy crisis and inflation, Europe has entered an era of soaring energy prices. High energy prices are lashing European industry, forcing factories to cut production quickly. Half of Europe’s aluminum and zinc production has been forced to stop, according to Eurometaux, Europe’s metals trade association. In July, the seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 2.3% in the euro area, compared with June 2022. By comparing the electricity prices of European countries, it is found that the electricity prices in many European countries, including Germany, France, Spain and the U.K., have risen several times compared with last year. As a result, the cost of living for ordinary people has greatly increased.
As of Oct.24, the fluctuation of electricity prices in European countries the previous day. Source: euenergy.live
After the Nord Stream’s explosions, Energy crisis hits Europe’s largest economy more than expected
Germany is the economy most at risk of gas shortages due to its reliance on Nord Stream 1 and lack of alternatives. German economy stagnates with 0% growth in Q2，inflation has soared to double digits for the first time since the Second World War. Considering the impact of global supply chain disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty, and continued rising energy prices, Germany’s economy will fall into recession, shrinking 0.4% in 2023.
The recent attack on the part-German-owned Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany is a problem that cannot be ignored. Many experts agree that sabotage of the pipeline could be an act of the U.S.. The U.S. has historically seen the Nord Stream gas pipelines as an extension of Russian influence over Europe through Germany. This is clearly not a conspiracy theory. The U.S. aims to replace Russian gas by exporting its own gas to Europe. After the Nord Stream pipelines was bombed, Europe will inevitably increase its dependence on US energy, which will benefit the U.S.. But the U.S. actions weaken Germany.
Let’s look at the whole of Europe, experts have warned that some gas producers such as the U.S., Canada and Qatar may not be able to completely replace Russia as a supplier to Europe in the mid-long term. If that is the case, high gas prices in Europe could last into 2024, potentially permanently hurting European manufacturing.
Can the U.S. help Europe out of the Energy crisis
What the U.S., as an ally of Europe, has done in this energy crisis? Although the Biden administration has promised to send more gas to Europe, the U.S. can only provide limited help. Given the current state of energy infrastructure, supply growth has peaked in the near future. It’s hard to deny that the U.S. is clearly benefiting from the European energy crisis in general. The U.S. is exporting gas to Europe at high prices, French President Emmanuel Macron recently couldn’t help but complain that US gas is too expensive. With the U.S. unable to guarantee European gas demand and preferential prices, the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines has made Europe even worse, and may completely cut off Europe’s retreat.
Global inflation, the Fed’s interest rate hike and balance sheet shrinkage have heightened the risk of recession in the world economy, especially in Europe. If European countries can no longer find a solution to the energy crisis, recession will be a sure thing.
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With the aim of increasing bilateral trade and mutual economic cooperation, special attention must be paid to the ‘Middle East’. Bangladesh seeks cooperation in at least 12 sectors from the top ten countries of the Arab world or the Middle East to overcome the ongoing power and energy crisis, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the financial loss of the epidemic corona. One of these is the power and energy sector.
Maximum emphasis has been placed on easy terms of investment and energy imports from the Middle East in this sector. In addition to this, the government is interested in new manpower exports and product exports to collect remittances, one of the sources of foreign exchange. A meeting of Bangladesh-Saudi Arabia Joint Commission (JC) has been called in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia by the end of this month.
Looking ahead to that meeting, Saudi Arabia wanted to know what kind of cooperation Bangladesh wants to increase bilateral trade. The Economic Relations Department (ERD) will present an outline of economic cooperation and investment at the JC meeting itself.
It is known that assistance will be sought from the Middle East to resolve the ongoing power and energy crisis. Frequent load-shedding and rising prices of all types of fuel have increased the cost of production in the country. Its biggest impact is noticeable in inflation. In addition to this, the majority of remittances come from Middle Eastern countries. Due to this reason, the stakeholders have urged to increase mutual economic cooperation and bilateral trade with the Middle East. More than 80 percent of the fuel oil used in Bangladesh is imported from some countries in the Middle East including Saudi Arabia.
Similarly, most remittances are being extracted by exporting unskilled manpower to Middle Eastern countries. Most of the fertilizers used in agricultural production are imported from the Middle East. But the economy of Bangladesh is under pressure due to the ongoing global crisis and the increase in dollar prices. Inflation is increasing.
In this situation, the dollar crisis and the increase in the price of all types of fuel are making it more difficult to maintain the continuity of production. As a result, there is increasing load shedding and disruption of production. Initiatives have been taken to increase mutual cooperation with Middle East countries to overcome the current situation. Bangladesh is dreaming of developing economic relations with the Middle East.
The government is preparing to attend the 14th JC meeting to be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on October 30-31. Bangladesh will be represented in that meeting by high-level representatives of the Economic Relations Department of the Ministry of Finance. Before attending the meeting, ERD held several inter-ministerial meetings on the initiative of the Ministry of Finance.
In these meetings, economic relations with other countries of the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, have been urged to be strengthened and bilateral trade increased. Besides, cooperation in 12 sectors will be sought from the Middle East. These include development of bilateral economic and trade relations, manpower, employment and consular, private aviation, tourism and cultural, investment, Abu Dhabi Development Fund, electricity, energy and mineral resources, information and communication technology sector, education, science and technology sector, marine environment. Cooperation in development, agriculture, healthcare and health education sectors and humanitarian and charitable assistance is one of them.
Saudi Arabia has already expressed its positive attitude towards increasing cooperation with Bangladesh. Not only that, Bangladesh-Saudi Arabia has signed several agreements and memoranda of understanding to increase bilateral trade and investment. In addition, bilateral trade and economic cooperation with Saudi Arabia will be increased with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Egypt and Turkey.
An official letter has been given to these countries by the Commercial Counselor of Bangladesh Embassy abroad to increase bilateral trade and manpower export. Besides, the government has taken a special initiative from the Middle East Branch-1 of the Economic Relations Department (ERD). An outline in this regard will also be presented in the JC meeting to be held with Saudi Arabia. Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) has a separate program around the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia has already been informed about ensuring one-stop service from the bidder’s side. ERD believes that if mutual economic cooperation with Saudi Arabia, the top country of the Arab world, increases, bilateral trade with other countries in the Middle East will also increase.
And for this reason, preparations are being made vigorously in front of the 14th JC meeting. A high-level delegation from Bangladesh is expected to participate in the meeting. In this regard, Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal said that currently there is an excellent environment for investment in Bangladesh. There is considerable potential for investment on Public-Private Partnership (PPP) basis, particularly in major infrastructure, information technology, communication, agriculture, power and energy, medical sectors.
Middle East entrepreneurs including Saudi Arabia can take investment opportunities in those sectors if they wish. Professional, skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled manpower is still in great demand in the Arab world. Middle East countries can take huge manpower from Bangladesh if they want. He said that the country’s electricity and energy sector needs investment and cooperation from the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia. To deal with the ongoing crisis, the government will take the cooperation of Saudi Arabia and other countries in the power and energy sector.
According to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation or BPC data, the country imports 6.5 million tons of fuel oil annually. Of that, 4 million tons of diesel is imported annually. More than 90 percent of vehicles in the transport sector in the country are dependent on fuel oil. Again, 34 percent of the power generation capacity depends on fuel oil.
For these fuels, we have to depend on Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East. Bangladesh imports refined and crude fuel oil. The foreign companies supplying oil are Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company Limited (ADNOC) of the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) of Kuwait, Petco Trading Labuan Company Limited (PTCL) of Malaysia, Emirates National Oil of the United Arab Emirates. Company (Inc), China’s PetroChina (Singapore) Pte Ltd and Unipec (Singapore) Pte Ltd, Indonesia’s PT Bumi Siak Pusaku (BSP), Thailand’s PTT International Trading Pte Ltd, India’s Numaligarh Refinery Limited (NRL).
Apart from this, BPC also buys fuel oil through open tender. In other words, more than 80 percent of fuel oil is imported from Middle East countries including Saudi Arabia. Earlier in 2019, two agreements and four memorandums of understanding were signed with Saudi Arabia for the development of various sectors of Bangladesh, including the power and industrial sectors. These agreements and agreements were made in the presence of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a ceremony organized at her office.
If these agreements are implemented, the country’s bilateral trade and investment with Bangladesh will increase. It is believed that both countries will benefit economically. Especially the ongoing crisis in the power and energy sector of the country will be removed. Besides, bilateral trade with Saudi Arabia also has great opportunities and possibilities.
In addition, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco has already shown interest in building, operating and maintaining an oil refinery. It will cost 1.5 to 2 billion dollars. Saudi firm Engineering Dimension LLC is very enthusiastic about investing in Bangladesh.
The company is interested in investing in 7 projects and has pledged to invest around 1.685 billion dollars during the International Investment Conference held in Dhaka in November last year. Saudi Arabia’s investment in the power and energy sector is urgently needed at the moment. This issue should be given maximum emphasis in any forum discussion with the country.
Engineering Dimension is one of the companies that have shown interest in the construction of Dhaka East-West Elevated Expressway. Some Saudi investments are already in the pipeline. These include the development of Patenga Container Terminal with Red Sea Gateway Terminal in Public Private Partnership. Further Saudi investment will largely depend on how successfully the projects in the pipeline can be managed.
ACWA Power, an internationally renowned energy company, has expressed interest in investing around $600 million to build a 730 MW combined cycle power plant in Chittagong. Al-Fanar plans to invest $100 million to build a 100 MW IPP solar project in a joint venture. Al-Bawani is interested in investing about $10 million in the employment of skilled human resources for construction and engineering projects.
Bangladesh-Saudi Arabia joint commission meeting preparation.
Preparations for the 14th meeting of the Bangladesh-Saudi Arabia Joint Commission have started in full swing. The Economic Relations Department (ERD) of the Ministry of Finance prepared the working paper on behalf of Bangladesh. In the meeting to be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on October 30-31, the cooperation of Saudi Arabia will be sought in the export of electricity, manpower, increasing the export of manufactured goods, export of halal products, especially fish and meat, export of agricultural processed products and fertilizer production.
Besides, Bangladesh has the opportunity to export clothes to other Middle East countries including Saudi Arabia. The entrepreneurs of the country’s garment sector have expressed their interest in this regard. Saudi Arabia will be requested to speedily implement the agreements made with Saudi Arabia at various times. In this context, Bangladesh has prepared for the Bangladesh-Saudi Arabia joint commission meeting.
Bangladesh has several bilateral trade investment agreements with Saudi Arabia. These agreements must be implemented now. It is reported that talks are going on between Petrobangla and Aramco regarding a liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal. This will solve the country’s LNG crisis. Besides, Eastern Refinery Unit-2 has sought Saudi Arabia’s cooperation in processing 3 million tons of crude palm oil per day.
If it is implemented, 68 thousand barrels of refined petroleum will be available. MoU will be signed between Bangladesh Power Development Board and world renowned ACWO Power. It is expected to make great progress in the renewable energy sector in the country. It has an agreement with Saudi Arabia to build a 100 MW Solar Independent Power Plant (IPP) and manufacture transformers and electrical components.
These agreements need to be implemented quickly. Meanwhile, 20 more Saudi Arabian companies have shown interest in investing in Bangladesh, said Foreign Minister Dr. AK Abdul Momen recently. After a recent meeting with a delegation of Saudi Arabia, he added, “We will give them all the facilities they need.” Both countries have much more to do in terms of trade and investment cooperation.
Besides, the country is also interested in investment on the basis of public-private partnership or PPP. Saudi Arabia will mainly invest in Bangladesh’s infrastructure, medical, tourism and other sectors. A memorandum of understanding has been signed with Saudi Arabia. Salman F Rahman, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Private Industry and Investment on behalf of Bangladesh, signed one such MoU a few months ago. However, countries of the Middle east especially Saudi Arabia’s investment in the power and energy sector is urgently needed at the moment.
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