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Before I reveal the answer to the clickbait headline, let me start by making this clear: Rui Hachimura isn’t bad. Last season, after missing half the season due to personal reasons, he was about average when he played.
Here’s a look at some of the stats I use when evaluating players (box score stats are per 100 team possessions, unless otherwise noted):
Compared to average, he was about 1 point per 100 possessions better than league average on offense. His improved-to-the-point-of-excellent three-point shooting was offset by below average shooting on twos, subpar free throw shooting, a lack of playmaking, anemic offensive rebounding, relatively few trips to the free throw line, and a below-average three-point attempt rate.
Defense is a weakness. His awareness remained atrocious — he generally seemed oblivious to offensive actions that didn’t directly involve his man. Opposing teams regularly drove across his face, and he reacted late or not at all. His defensive contributions were primarily getting defensive boards that bounced to him.
This showed in the on/off numbers. The team was about 4.1 points per 100 possessions better defensively when he sat, mostly because they shot better — 54.9% efg when he was on the floor vs. 52.2% when he was off. League average was 53.2%.
And here’s the thing: most of that shooting difference is in two-point shooting. Hachimura’s on/off numbers benefitted from marginally unlucky opponent shooting from three-point range.
Despite the defensive problems, Hachimura’s overall impact was a shade below league average, according to my PPA metric.
To the Doppelgänger Machine.
For those unfamiliar, my Statistical Doppelgänger Machine works by comparing a player’s performance across 14 different categories that include age, playing time, pace-neutral box score stats and scores from my PPA metric. All that’s rolled up into a single score that (in theory) provides a list of NBA players since 1977-78 with similar production at a similar age.
In Hachimura’s case, the machine produced SF and PF types who generally topped out as decent role players. One guy is remarkably similar in his pattern of production in multiple seasons. According to the Doppelgänger Machine, Hachimura is the second coming of Chase Budinger.
The comps:
While there’s some stylistic variety in these comps, the overall quality is depressingly consistent. The lone elite player from the group (Stojakovic) seems somewhat improbable unless Hachimura can maintain three-point shooting excellence while boosting his volume, improve from the free throw line, draw more fouls, and fix his defense. Easy, right?
If you’re hoping that the guys further down the list are better, stop it. The next group of guys includes names like Tracy Murray, Charlie Villanueva, Walter Herrmann, Trey Lyles, and Martell Webster.
Jabari Parker’s age 22 season would have landed as fifth most similar if I hadn’t dropped it because he appeared in just 31 games after tearing his ACL.
I’ve heard some fans hope that Hachimura can become about the quality of Tobias Harris, but Harris’ most similar season (age 24) just isn’t all that similar. Hope for it, sure, but don’t expect it.
This poll is closed