Is Elon Musk steering Tesla away from the EV business it has dominated for more than a decade? It is starting to look that way to some analysts and investors.
Consider page 13 of Tesla’s Q1 earnings report: It is a graphic showing EVs as just one product – not even the top product – of “The Tesla Ecosystem.” The headline adds: “More than just vehicles.” The product at the top of the page is the Optimus humanoid robot, hovering over a picture of a computer chip labeled “AI Compute.” Images of an EV and a Supercharger are consigned to the third row on the page.
Musk has said many times that Optimus and AI are the future of Tesla. He is now putting aggressive action behind those words.
Earlier this week, Musk abruptly dismissed the leader of Tesla’s EV charging business and 500 of its employees – jarring customers and rival automakers who are gearing up to equip new EVs to plug into the Tesla Supercharger network. Musk said on X.com that the Supercharger network will grow more slowly and consume less capital.
Reuters reported that Tesla is pulling back on ambitious investments in giga-casting, the process it pioneered to create large chunks of a car in one, complex casted piece.
Musk had already signaled a pause on new factory construction in India and Mexico, and a re-think of the strategy to develop a lower-priced Tesla model. Instead of an all-new architecture with an all-new assembly process, Tesla will adapt existing vehicles and factories.
Musk’s top priority for Tesla – dramatized by his surprise visit to China last weekend – is expanding the market for its “Full Self Driving” software. Spending on the physical Tesla cars is getting squeezed – to the delight of rivals who have fresher-looking EVs and hybrids to sell.
To appreciate the significance of Tesla’s new direction, carve out time to watch the presentations by 16 Tesla executives during the March 2023 investor day. Nearly a third of those executives are gone and many of the projects they touted are now delayed.
Tesla is not alone in slashing costs as EV sales slow and prices fall. The company was always bound to lose market share as more competitive EVs entered the field.
But as Chinese EV companies put more of their low-cost vehicles on ships for Europe, Asia and Latin America the EV business is starting to look less like a premium market driven by technology and brand image, and more of a low-margin war of attrition.
Among the “Magnificent Seven” technology companies Tesla considers peers, artificial intelligence is the new black. Musk wants Tesla to be a leading AI player – so long as shareholders give him 25% voting control of Tesla’s stock.
But in the AI arena, Tesla’s competition is not just the Motor City Three or a gaggle of Chinese EV companies. It’s Microsoft, Alphabet (Google) and Facebook (Meta) – which are spending more on AI-related capital investments in a single quarter than Tesla plans to spend on all its operations this year.