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By Sharon Kimathi, Energy and ESG Editor, Reuters Digital

Hello!

Today’s newsletter gazes into a crystal ball of climate predictions according to risk analysts and insurers.

Risk specialists see extreme weather and misinformation as most likely to trigger a global crisis in the next couple of years, according to a recent World Economic Forum (WEF) survey.

While extreme weather was identified as the bigger risk in 2024, misinformation and disinformation came second and were found to be the most severe global risk over the next two years.

This could pose a particular threat as billions of people head to the polls in the biggest election year in history.

Here are a few other stories on my radar today:

• Consumer group sues Starbucks over ‘ethical’ sourcing claims
• Bird flu found in mammals near Antarctica for the first time, scientists say
• Renewable energy growth must accelerate to reach 2030 goal – IEA

Overview of the ice ring and the town of Davos ahead of the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF), Switzerland. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

Major economies from the United States to India and Mexico will hold elections this year, leaving industry and political leaders reliant on polls and forecasts to assess what the policy environment will look like by 2025.

“The widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments,” the report warned.

“Resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and terrorism,” added the report, which was prepared in partnership with Zurich Insurance Group and Marsh McLennan ahead of next week’s annual WEF meeting.

Over a 10-year horizon, environmental risks including biodiversity loss and critical change to the Earth’s systems topped the rankings, with misinformation, disinformation and adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence (AI) just behind.

Reuters reporters will bring the latest news and analysis on the 2024 U.S. elections straight to your inbox. Click below to update your newsletter preferences.

The WEF report comes as the organization is set to begin its 54th annual gathering in the Swiss ski resort of Davos next week.

This year’s Davos conference will occur against its most complicated geopolitical backdrop ever ranging from wars in Gaza and Ukraine to rising debt and living costs, its president Borge Brende said.

Brende said much of this year’s focus would be high level diplomatic talks on wars in the Middle East, Ukraine and Africa.

“With matters such as ongoing geopolitical tensions, the urgent need to address climate change, economic concerns and rapid technological advancements influencing policy and boardroom decisions, this summit will be pivotal,” Deloitte Global Chair Anna Marks said in emailed comments.

Speaking of economics and climate change: earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, storms in the United States and other natural disasters caused an estimated $95 billion in insured losses in 2023, down from the previous year but still above the long-term average, Munich Re said.

The quakes in Turkey and Syria were the most destructive events, causing 58,000 deaths, $50 billion in overall losses and $5.5 billion in losses covered by insurance.

But what stood out in 2023, Munich Re said, were not single big events but the numerous severe regional storms in the United States and Europe which are increasing as a result of climate change.

Additionally, the U.S. had more “billion-dollar” floods, fires and other climate disasters in 2023 than ever before, and the country’s average temperature was the fifth-highest on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said.

Among the disasters was a wildfire on Maui, the nation’s deadliest in more than a century, severe floods in California, two tornado outbreaks in central states, a winter storm in the northeast last February, and Hurricane Idalia in August.

The delegation stand as judges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) enter at The Hague, Netherlands. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen

Octavio Sandoval, director of investments at U.S.-based private equity firm, Illumen Capital, shares his thoughts on climate justice and inequality:

“Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health.

“As we think creatively for solutions in this crisis, we must think about intersectionality. 

“The fight for climate justice cannot succeed without the inclusion of people of color.

“From healthy food access to pollution to clean water to wildfires and hurricanes, low-income communities of color are most disproportionately affected.

“Racial biases continue to expose low-income communities of color to heightened environmental risks, a trend that will only continue as climate change exacerbates natural and man-made disasters.

“As such, climate relief equity must be woven intentionally to address the socioeconomic, sociocultural, and physical impacts of climate change.”

Last year was the planet’s hottest on record by a substantial margin and likely the world’s warmest in the last 100,000 years, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said.

Scientists had widely expected the milestone, after climate records were repeatedly broken. Since June, every month has been the world’s hottest on record compared with the corresponding month in previous years.

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