The softest of soft landings

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Wayne Cole, Chief Correspondent, Treasury

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more European market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com” rel=”noopener” target=”_blank” style=”text-decoration: underline; color: #005da2;”>morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

Markets kicked off the week with a day of consolidation after their best week of the year, on expectations of a softer than soft landing for the U.S. economy – or no landing at all given many analysts expect it to keep growing between 2% and 3%.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are ahead by 0.2% or so while the Nikkei is flat, having rallied almost 9% last week. The euro is holding above $1.1000 and sterling hit its highest in a month at $1.2953 .

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 16, 2024. REUTERS/Staff

Federal Reserve members Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee were out over the weekend to flag the possibility of easing in September, while minutes due on Wednesday for the last policy meeting should underline the dovish outlook.

Futures are 100% priced for a quarter-point cut, and 26% for 50 basis points, with much likely depending on whether the next U.S. payrolls report shows the bounce that many anticipate.

On a cautionary note, Goldman Sachs noted the annual re-analysis of payrolls is due on Wednesday and could show a downward revision in the range of 600,000 to 1 million jobs, although they argue this would overstate the weakness of the labour market.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell caps the week with his Jackson Hole speech on Friday and markets are clearly priced for a dovish outlook, although not one that sanctions a half-point easing.

Markets are likewise fully priced for a Riksbank rate cut on Tuesday, with the only debate being whether they go by 25 or 50 basis points.

Japan’s consumer price report could revive talk of a Bank of Japan hike, which had all but evaporated since the Nikkei’s recent swoon.

Markets have just 2 basis points of Japan tightening priced in for October, although some analysts are still calling for a rise of 25 basis points, to 0.5%.

On the U.S. politics front, the Democratic convention kicks off on Monday with betting site PredictIt showing Vice President Kamala Harris at 58 cents compared with 45 cents for Donald Trump, a complete reversal from where it was before President Joe Biden dropped out.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Morning Bid is sent every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here.

Want to stop receiving this email? Unsubscribe here. To manage which newsletters you’re signed up for, click here.

Reuters Terms & Conditions and Privacy Statement