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What are Vladimir Putin's long-term goals in Ukraine? An overlooked treaty from the mid-1990s reveal that his ambitions go far beyond Ukraine to building a Russian Empire 2.0.
What is Putin's new Russian Empire based on?
What does Vladimir Putin want?
One big clue is the “Union State”, a supranational organization consisting of Russia and Belarus that was founded in 1996. The union aimed to gradually create a single political, economic, military and cultural space.
Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.
But Putin’s vision for the union doesn’t stop with Belarus. He has been quietly but diligently building the formations of the USSR 2.0 for decades.
And just in the past few weeks, Russia has announced that the occupied territories of Ukraine that have been annexed into Russia — as well as their armed militias — would also become part of the Union State.
What is USSR 2.0?
The Union was created in stages throughout the mid to late Nineties. In 1996, an agreement was reached on the creation of the Union between Belarus and Russia, with the official signing the following year of the “Treaty on the Union between Belarus and Russia”
In 1999, the “Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus” was officially signed. Since then, the driving aim is to reproduce what has been referred to as the "USSR 2.0" or the "Russian Empire 2.0". Other events show that Putin’s true ambitions stretch far beyond the orders of Belarus. It's also notable that the organization has gotten renewed attention since the war begin, particularly in the past few weeks since the sham referendums on annexation have begun.
Here are some highlights of that history:
• In 2001, the former president of Moldova Vladimir Voronin announced plans for Moldova to join the “Union State”, but this was never implemented.
• In 1999, Slobodan Milošević announced his desire for his country to join the Union State as an observer.
In Kyrgyzstan in June 2007, the opposition was determined to initiate a referendum on joining the Union State.
• On Oct. 17, 2008, the “parliaments” of the Russian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia received the status of permanent observers at the “Parliamentary Assembly of the Union State”.
• On Sept. 30, 2022, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov announced that the annexed territories of Ukraine would become not only part of Russia but also the Union State.
• On Oct. 9, 2022, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's second CIS department, Alexey Polishchuk, said that the illegal armed formations of the "Donetsk People’s Republic", "Luhansk People’s Republic" and the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions became part of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
• In 2022, the State Secretary of the Union State Dmitry Mezentsev visited the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine four times and even took part in a meeting in the occupied Donetsk together with First Deputy of the Presidential Administration of Russia Sergey Kiriyenko and First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Andriy Turchak.
What’s more, three billion rubles ($48 million) were allocated to support the occupation administrations in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko observing strategic deterrence forces exercise in the Kremlin’s situation room on Feb. 19, 2022
Putin's new title
After analyzing the activities and structure of the so-called Union State, it is clear that this formation was founded and supported with the sole purpose of reproducing the "USSR 2.0". That is, the very existence of such a structure foreshadows the violent takeovers of independent states that were previously part of the post-Soviet space.
According to the political scientists analyzing the processes in the post-Soviet space, in 2023 Russia is planning a transition of power, which implies the transition of Vladimir Putin to the post of “Secretary General of the Union State”. The role will not just encompass Russia and Belarus but have a broader meaning. In the information space of Russia, they have already begun to promote the topic of a new “union state”. So on Aug. 13, 2022, Kremlin propagandist and “political scientist” Anton Bredikhin said that in addition to Russia and Belarus, the new “union state” may include temporarily occupied territories of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia; temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine; Transnistria and the Autonomous Republic of Gagauzia [in Moldova].
It's an aggressive policy against the states of the post-Soviet space that don't want to join the new union.
According to Bredikhin, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan can join this formation (but this is more a desire than facts). According to colleagues of political scientists, the transition of power in 2023 is that Putin must leave the post of president of Russia and become the head of a “union state” in a new format.
The processes described above stem from one factor, which is the desire of Vladimir Putin to reproduce the 20th century empire, a "USSR 2.0," which is likely to lead to new political crises or military conflicts. The beginning of the reproduction of the “new Soviet empire” is just the first step in an aggressive policy against the independent states of the post-Soviet space that do not want to join the new union. Ukraine just turned out to be the first one on the Kremlin’s list.
The Union was created in stages throughout the mid to late Nineties. In 1996, an agreement was reached on the creation of the Union between Belarus and Russia, with the official signing the following year of the “Treaty on the Union between Belarus and Russia”
In 1999, the “Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus” was officially signed. Since then, the driving aim is to reproduce what has been referred to as the "USSR 2.0" or the "Russian Empire 2.0". Other events show that Putin’s true ambitions stretch far beyond the orders of Belarus. It's also notable that the organization has gotten renewed attention since the war begin, particularly in the past few weeks since the sham referendums on annexation have begun.
Here are some highlights of that history:
• In 2001, the former president of Moldova Vladimir Voronin announced plans for Moldova to join the “Union State”, but this was never implemented.
• In 1999, Slobodan Milošević announced his desire for his country to join the Union State as an observer.
In Kyrgyzstan in June 2007, the opposition was determined to initiate a referendum on joining the Union State.
• On Oct. 17, 2008, the “parliaments” of the Russian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia received the status of permanent observers at the “Parliamentary Assembly of the Union State”.
• On Sept. 30, 2022, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov announced that the annexed territories of Ukraine would become not only part of Russia but also the Union State.
• On Oct. 9, 2022, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's second CIS department, Alexey Polishchuk, said that the illegal armed formations of the "Donetsk People’s Republic", "Luhansk People’s Republic" and the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions became part of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
• In 2022, the State Secretary of the Union State Dmitry Mezentsev visited the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine four times and even took part in a meeting in the occupied Donetsk together with First Deputy of the Presidential Administration of Russia Sergey Kiriyenko and First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Andriy Turchak.
What’s more, three billion rubles ($48 million) were allocated to support the occupation administrations in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko observing strategic deterrence forces exercise in the Kremlin’s situation room on Feb. 19, 2022
Kremlin
After analyzing the activities and structure of the so-called Union State, it is clear that this formation was founded and supported with the sole purpose of reproducing the "USSR 2.0". That is, the very existence of such a structure foreshadows the violent takeovers of independent states that were previously part of the post-Soviet space.
According to the political scientists analyzing the processes in the post-Soviet space, in 2023 Russia is planning a transition of power, which implies the transition of Vladimir Putin to the post of “Secretary General of the Union State”. The role will not just encompass Russia and Belarus but have a broader meaning. In the information space of Russia, they have already begun to promote the topic of a new “union state”. So on Aug. 13, 2022, Kremlin propagandist and “political scientist” Anton Bredikhin said that in addition to Russia and Belarus, the new “union state” may include temporarily occupied territories of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia; temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine; Transnistria and the Autonomous Republic of Gagauzia [in Moldova].
According to Bredikhin, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan can join this formation (but this is more a desire than facts). According to colleagues of political scientists, the transition of power in 2023 is that Putin must leave the post of president of Russia and become the head of a “union state” in a new format.
The processes described above stem from one factor, which is the desire of Vladimir Putin to reproduce the 20th century empire, a "USSR 2.0," which is likely to lead to new political crises or military conflicts. The beginning of the reproduction of the “new Soviet empire” is just the first step in an aggressive policy against the independent states of the post-Soviet space that do not want to join the new union. Ukraine just turned out to be the first one on the Kremlin’s list.
*Pavel Lysyansky is the Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Security
What are Vladimir Putin's long-term goals in Ukraine? An overlooked treaty from the mid-1990s reveal that his ambitions go far beyond Ukraine to building a Russian Empire 2.0.
What is Putin's new Russian Empire based on?
What does Vladimir Putin want?
One big clue is the “Union State”, a supranational organization consisting of Russia and Belarus that was founded in 1996. The union aimed to gradually create a single political, economic, military and cultural space.
Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.
But Putin’s vision for the union doesn’t stop with Belarus. He has been quietly but diligently building the formations of the USSR 2.0 for decades.
And just in the past few weeks, Russia has announced that the occupied territories of Ukraine that have been annexed into Russia — as well as their armed militias — would also become part of the Union State.
What is USSR 2.0?
The Union was created in stages throughout the mid to late Nineties. In 1996, an agreement was reached on the creation of the Union between Belarus and Russia, with the official signing the following year of the “Treaty on the Union between Belarus and Russia”
In 1999, the “Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus” was officially signed. Since then, the driving aim is to reproduce what has been referred to as the "USSR 2.0" or the "Russian Empire 2.0". Other events show that Putin’s true ambitions stretch far beyond the orders of Belarus. It's also notable that the organization has gotten renewed attention since the war begin, particularly in the past few weeks since the sham referendums on annexation have begun.
Here are some highlights of that history:
• In 2001, the former president of Moldova Vladimir Voronin announced plans for Moldova to join the “Union State”, but this was never implemented.
• In 1999, Slobodan Milošević announced his desire for his country to join the Union State as an observer.
In Kyrgyzstan in June 2007, the opposition was determined to initiate a referendum on joining the Union State.
• On Oct. 17, 2008, the “parliaments” of the Russian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia received the status of permanent observers at the “Parliamentary Assembly of the Union State”.
• On Sept. 30, 2022, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov announced that the annexed territories of Ukraine would become not only part of Russia but also the Union State.
• On Oct. 9, 2022, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's second CIS department, Alexey Polishchuk, said that the illegal armed formations of the "Donetsk People’s Republic", "Luhansk People’s Republic" and the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions became part of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
• In 2022, the State Secretary of the Union State Dmitry Mezentsev visited the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine four times and even took part in a meeting in the occupied Donetsk together with First Deputy of the Presidential Administration of Russia Sergey Kiriyenko and First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Andriy Turchak.
What’s more, three billion rubles ($48 million) were allocated to support the occupation administrations in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko observing strategic deterrence forces exercise in the Kremlin’s situation room on Feb. 19, 2022
Putin's new title
After analyzing the activities and structure of the so-called Union State, it is clear that this formation was founded and supported with the sole purpose of reproducing the "USSR 2.0". That is, the very existence of such a structure foreshadows the violent takeovers of independent states that were previously part of the post-Soviet space.
According to the political scientists analyzing the processes in the post-Soviet space, in 2023 Russia is planning a transition of power, which implies the transition of Vladimir Putin to the post of “Secretary General of the Union State”. The role will not just encompass Russia and Belarus but have a broader meaning. In the information space of Russia, they have already begun to promote the topic of a new “union state”. So on Aug. 13, 2022, Kremlin propagandist and “political scientist” Anton Bredikhin said that in addition to Russia and Belarus, the new “union state” may include temporarily occupied territories of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia; temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine; Transnistria and the Autonomous Republic of Gagauzia [in Moldova].
It's an aggressive policy against the states of the post-Soviet space that don't want to join the new union.
According to Bredikhin, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan can join this formation (but this is more a desire than facts). According to colleagues of political scientists, the transition of power in 2023 is that Putin must leave the post of president of Russia and become the head of a “union state” in a new format.
The processes described above stem from one factor, which is the desire of Vladimir Putin to reproduce the 20th century empire, a "USSR 2.0," which is likely to lead to new political crises or military conflicts. The beginning of the reproduction of the “new Soviet empire” is just the first step in an aggressive policy against the independent states of the post-Soviet space that do not want to join the new union. Ukraine just turned out to be the first one on the Kremlin’s list.
The Union was created in stages throughout the mid to late Nineties. In 1996, an agreement was reached on the creation of the Union between Belarus and Russia, with the official signing the following year of the “Treaty on the Union between Belarus and Russia”
In 1999, the “Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus” was officially signed. Since then, the driving aim is to reproduce what has been referred to as the "USSR 2.0" or the "Russian Empire 2.0". Other events show that Putin’s true ambitions stretch far beyond the orders of Belarus. It's also notable that the organization has gotten renewed attention since the war begin, particularly in the past few weeks since the sham referendums on annexation have begun.
Here are some highlights of that history:
• In 2001, the former president of Moldova Vladimir Voronin announced plans for Moldova to join the “Union State”, but this was never implemented.
• In 1999, Slobodan Milošević announced his desire for his country to join the Union State as an observer.
In Kyrgyzstan in June 2007, the opposition was determined to initiate a referendum on joining the Union State.
• On Oct. 17, 2008, the “parliaments” of the Russian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia received the status of permanent observers at the “Parliamentary Assembly of the Union State”.
• On Sept. 30, 2022, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov announced that the annexed territories of Ukraine would become not only part of Russia but also the Union State.
• On Oct. 9, 2022, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's second CIS department, Alexey Polishchuk, said that the illegal armed formations of the "Donetsk People’s Republic", "Luhansk People’s Republic" and the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions became part of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
• In 2022, the State Secretary of the Union State Dmitry Mezentsev visited the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine four times and even took part in a meeting in the occupied Donetsk together with First Deputy of the Presidential Administration of Russia Sergey Kiriyenko and First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Andriy Turchak.
What’s more, three billion rubles ($48 million) were allocated to support the occupation administrations in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko observing strategic deterrence forces exercise in the Kremlin’s situation room on Feb. 19, 2022
Kremlin
After analyzing the activities and structure of the so-called Union State, it is clear that this formation was founded and supported with the sole purpose of reproducing the "USSR 2.0". That is, the very existence of such a structure foreshadows the violent takeovers of independent states that were previously part of the post-Soviet space.
According to the political scientists analyzing the processes in the post-Soviet space, in 2023 Russia is planning a transition of power, which implies the transition of Vladimir Putin to the post of “Secretary General of the Union State”. The role will not just encompass Russia and Belarus but have a broader meaning. In the information space of Russia, they have already begun to promote the topic of a new “union state”. So on Aug. 13, 2022, Kremlin propagandist and “political scientist” Anton Bredikhin said that in addition to Russia and Belarus, the new “union state” may include temporarily occupied territories of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia; temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine; Transnistria and the Autonomous Republic of Gagauzia [in Moldova].
According to Bredikhin, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan can join this formation (but this is more a desire than facts). According to colleagues of political scientists, the transition of power in 2023 is that Putin must leave the post of president of Russia and become the head of a “union state” in a new format.
The processes described above stem from one factor, which is the desire of Vladimir Putin to reproduce the 20th century empire, a "USSR 2.0," which is likely to lead to new political crises or military conflicts. The beginning of the reproduction of the “new Soviet empire” is just the first step in an aggressive policy against the independent states of the post-Soviet space that do not want to join the new union. Ukraine just turned out to be the first one on the Kremlin’s list.
*Pavel Lysyansky is the Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Security
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African leaders traveled to both Kyiv and Moscow to discuss a potential "peace plan" for the war in Ukraine. Predictably the envoys failed, and others will likely meet the same fate as Ukraine's counteroffensive kicks into gear and Putin keeps digging in.
Putin and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa meet in St Petersburg on Saturday
-Analysis-
PARIS — It was an attempt at mediation that had absolutely no chance of success. The four African presidents who traveled to Kyiv and then on to Moscow left without making any progress in bringing the two sides closer.
Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.
Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.
The predictable failure can be attributed to two factors: first, ambiguities in the proposals and positioning of the mediators from South Africa, Senegal, Zambia and Comoros. And second, the meeting's timing — in the middle of the Ukrainian counteroffensive — wouldn't have allowed for any political movement while the balance of power remains unstable.
Ukraine had the most cautious reaction to the content of the proposals. An end to the fighting today would mean "freezing" the conflict in favor of Russia and its territorial gains, without any guarantee that possible future negotiations would restore the country's sovereignty.
One particular clause in the African plan was unacceptable to Ukrainian ears: the suspension of the indictment of Vladimir Putin before the International Criminal Court for war crimes. African heads of state visited the Ukrainian city of Bucha, site of a massacre of civilians in the early weeks of the Russian invasion, but apparently it did not move them enough to reverse that clause.
If there is one positive outcome, it is that this it is the first time that African nations, collectively, have attempted mediation in a conflict in which they are not involved.
That said, Africa bears the full brunt of consequences of the war, including food insecurity and increasing energy prices and interest rates. Africa had a legitimate claim to make its voice heard. It missed an opportunity due to the diversity of positions on the continent.
On one hand, Africans have good reasons to refuse, like other countries in the Global South, to automatically align themselves in a conflict outside the continent. But in this case, non-alignment primarily benefits the aggressor.
A Russian Army Central Military District serviceman is seen during a combat mission, May 30, 2023, Russia.
© Stanislav Krasilnikov /TASS via ZUMA
Also on the positive side, the African initiative lays the groundwork for the day when negotiations will be possible. It also demonstrates the impatience of the rest of the world regarding the Ukrainian war, even though Africans would have benefited from expressing it more candidly — or more forcefully.
So, negotiations are not on the agenda at the moment. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow are currently inclined towards talks, especially in the midst of a decisive battle.
Ukraine has launched its counteroffensive and hopes to reverse the balance of power. Volodymyr Zelensky is not willing to negotiate before demonstrating on the ground that Ukraine can push back against Russia.
Putin shares a similar reasoning: he believes that his army can withstand the Ukrainian assault, even if they are armed with Western weapons. He hopes to hold onto his territorial gains, including the connection between Donbas and Crimea, and wants to maintain control over the Sea of Azov.
Therefore, it will be weapons that will determine the timing of any potential negotiations, and the balance of power. It is still too early to assess the outcome of the Ukrainian offensive, despite recent announcements of liberated villages or the spectacular destruction of a Russian weapons depot in the Kherson region. No mediation is possible in this context— and certainly not the imperfect one offered by African states.
You've reached your limit of free articles.
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Exclusive coverage from the world's top sources, in English for the first time.
Insights from the widest range of perspectives, languages and countries.
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You've reach your limit of free articles.
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SUBSCRIBERS BENEFITS
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