Working on separate tracks, American and Europeans are bungling the would-be historic prize of Saudi ties with Israel – and the chance to leverage it to rescue the real peacemaking: Between Israel and the Palestinians
American and European eyes are set on Riyadh.
Both the Biden administration and the European Union are currently trying to advance policy moves that involve Saudi Arabia and that – if successful – will reshape the Middle East.
Alas, when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, these European and American efforts are quite different, and even seem contradictory.
The United States is seeking to achieve Israeli-Saudi normalization by the end of the year, which could help boost President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign – but is not linking it to a genuine breakthrough towards the two-state solution.
The European Union, on the other hand, is seeking to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace through promising Israel regional integration in return for peace. It is engaging with the Saudis and the Arab League to advance a “comprehensive regional peace” approach that will present a post-conflict vision of regional integration hopefully making Israeli-Palestinian peace more compelling for both sides.
This lack of U.S.-EU coordination does not come as a surprise.
The United States has traditionally viewed the European Union as an actor that should mostly play a supportive role for U.S. conflict resolution efforts – whether by providing financial aid to the Palestinians, international legitimacy to U.S.-led interventions or offering Israelis and Palestinians closer ties with the European Union as an incentive for peace.
Even when Washington embraced the need for working together with Europe and others during the Obama administration – it still tried to remain the dominant player.
During the Trump administration the disconnect only grew, also due to deep policy differences. Trump developed his own peace plan, which diverted from the previous American-European consensus on the two-state solution. Europe was sidelined its ability to counter Trump’s plan by an initiative of its own was limited due to internal divisions between member states. The Middle East Quartet – composed of the U.S., EU, UN and Russia didn’t even meet during the Trump years.
Hopes for renewed U.S.-EU coordination on the Middle East Peace Process resurfaced upon Biden’s election, but did not hold for long. Quartet meetings, resumed but stopped after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Both the United States and the European Union were largely absent from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the last couple of years, intervening only to deescalate tensions or voice their concerns of worrying developments on the ground.
This year, however, their diplomatic activism accelerated. The United States convened two regional security summits earlier this year, along with Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt and Jordan, in order to reduce tensions ahead of Ramadan. In addition, it made unsuccessful efforts to have the Palestinians join the Negev Forum, and worked to clarify Saudi Arabia’s demands for normalization with Israel. Europe did not participate in these efforts.
From the European side, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, decided to develop the comprehensive regional peace concept as a means to promote Israeli-Palestinian peace. European Union Special Representative to the Middle East Peace Process Sven Koopmans began engaging with regional actors to assess what the European Union can offer to support peace.
The process was further motivated by the Saudi initiative to convene a closed ministerial meeting at the United Nations last September to mark the 20th anniversary of the Arab Peace Initiative and to advance its relaunching.
To follow up, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell met in February 2023 with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit.
The three discussed how to revive peace efforts via a package of regional incentives, based on the Arab Peace Initiative and the European Union’s offer from 2013 to grant Israel and the future Palestinian state a Special Privileged Partnership with the European Union.
The sides agreed to create a working group on the issue, and Borrell elaborated on the concept in an article in March in which he also stated that “while the United States remains essential for the process, we can no longer leave most of the hard work to American diplomats. Rather, we need a genuinely collective efforts that includes Arab states, Europe, the United States and others.”
Such a collective effort is still not in sight. American officials have been flying in and out of Riyadh, later briefing Israeli counterparts on prospects for Israeli-Saudi normalization, and leading to indications that the Saudis – contrary to their public statements – are willing to settle for less on the Palestinian issue than the Arab Peace Initiative demands, should their security requests from the United States (including security assurances and a civilian nuclear program) be met.
At the same time, the European Union is advancing with the Saudis an initiative that views a breakthrough toward a two-state solution as central to further regional normalization efforts.
Borell said in Cairo earlier this month that the European Union is working with the Arab League and the Saudis, and planning to pursue “concrete steps in the coming months.”
The coming months will be crucial to these American and European initiatives, although the Saudis are generally keeping quiet on both.
Israeli-Palestinian tensions are mounting again, with increased violence making regional engagement more difficult – as evidenced by the recurring postponements of the Negev Forum’s ministerial summit.
The U.S. political timeline provides the administration another six months or so to heavily invest in Israel-Saudi normalization before focusing on Biden’s re-election campaign. The European Union expects working groups with the Saudis and Arab League to be established soon, perhaps on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September.
The lack of coordination between the U.S. initiative, which prioritizes Israeli-Saudi normalization over progress on the Israeli-Palestinian track, and the EU initiative, which prioritizes Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking as a key to further normalization, may lead both initiatives to fail.
The biggest losers from this will be Israelis and Palestinians, who are paying a daily price due to the conflict’s intensification, and could end yet another episode of international diplomatic activism without any progress towards peace.
Instead of conducting parallel efforts with the Saudis and waiting to see which, if any, the Saudi leadership will eventually prioritize, the United States and European Union should invest in stepping up their coordination related to Israel-Arab relations and Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.
The appointment of a U.S. special envoy for Middle East normalization, which is currently in the works, could boost such efforts, especially if the selected envoy will be (as anticipated) someone committed to advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Together with the Saudis, the Arab League and pro-peace Israelis and Palestinians, the United States and the European Union now have an opportunity to conceptualize and exemplify how normalization can be leveraged to advance the two-state solution.
They could encourage the Arab League to come up with a revised Arab Peace Initiative, package it together with improved European and American incentives; advance a new international channel to support Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution to replace the defunct Quartet; and spell out a realistic diplomatic sequence that will gradually improve Israel’s regional integration, in parallel to meaningful steps towards the two-state solution.
Dr. Nimrod Goren is Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs at the Middle East Institute, President of Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, and Co-Founder of Diplomeds – The Council for Mediterranean Diplomacy. On Twitter: @GorenNimrod