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West Asia assumes a profound geopolitical and geo-strategic significance in India’s foreign policy and its aspirations of a global power in the emerging World Order. There has been a significant expansion and deepening of India’s ties in the region in the recent past. The Indian engagement has displayed numerous successful dimensions. The most remarkable one is its engagement with all three regional power centres- Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran and balanced approach on Israel-Palestine issue. However, the role of China in stitching this agreement is a big geopolitical step to lay foundation of its engagement for its economic interests pushing behind all other rival powers in the region. Thus, a realistic analysis of its implications for India is an urgent exercise to work out an appropriate response to re-position its strategy in the evolving geopolitical changes.
The remark of the Iran’s spokesperson, Ali Bahadori Jahromi in his tweet that “the historic agreement of Saudi-Iran negotiated in China and led entirely by Asian countries will change the dynamics of the region” has to be analysed from the perspective of India as an Asian power without any semblance of western strategy to serve its interests, enumeration of the challenges and preparation for appropriate response to keep its interests intact and their pursuits unabated.
The Trilateral marks an obvious geopolitical gains of China in the region and will have implications for India which needs careful evaluation and rework of our strategy to keep India’s presence relevant to the countries of the region particularly, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The agreement marks the end of pre-eminent geopolitical position of US as a peace maker as its unilateral policies, wars and unrealistic pursuit of democracy promotion project, violent interference in the name of war on terror and the Iraq misadventure has demolished its honest intent as a peace maker. Unlike that China is seen as an unbiased players engaged with Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia and others in the region who are keen to engage with China with equal diplomatic zest.
The agreement points to strategic marginalisation of US in the region including Saudi Arabia which are manifest in the recent Saudi-US exchanges of disagreement and divergence on policy opinion, action and expression. Needs India to engage on its own without the aligning with US policies in the region
India needs to spur its image and credibility as an individual actor in this changing geopolitical landscape in the region with appropriate use of civilizational ties, diaspora power and trade and investment prospects. Strategic re-working for balancing of our policies towards Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel in an integrated and holistic manner is warranted
The agreement seems to be a geopolitical counter-step to the Abraham Accords in intent and strategy. India needs a pragmatic re-evaluation and reset of its policies in this regard and I2U2 format which is part of the American Order vision for isolation of Iran. Besides it is part of the external power (Western/US) strategy. It is notable that exclusion of External Powers and regional solution of regional issues is the foremost foreign policy priority of revolutionary Iran. This is underscored by the remark of Wang Yi that “Middle East belongs to the people of Middle East and fate of the region should be in the hands of its people.”. This requires a prudent balancing our policy between US and Iran in particular and the region in general. The stature of US was on the wane for quite some time in the region. Its unilateral policies and action has weakened its geopolitical powers, reduced its capabilities to understand the true needs of the countries and people in the region. Therefore the United States is a very less trusted power in the region and its credibility as an honest security provider and peace maker is significantly diminished and frequently questioned and even defied.
Iran’s strategic importance for India’s Afghan Policy, Central Asia Vision and North South International Trade Corridor is paramount. In this scenario, India must devise its Iran policies beyond the US sanction policy and follow a calibrated policy to serve its interests before China gets entrenched in Iran’s strategy and policy. India needs to present a policy of reassurance and autonomous strategy outside the US shadow with strategic balanced approach to all the three-Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
China use its economic power, trading heft and even military relations to establish in the region. India is not a peer in economic strength but we can package our historic engagement and civilizational depth in consonance with the region’s aspirations of post oil economic vision, Look East Policy and technological partnership and skilled services.
There is a promising scope of India playing facilitating role in the pattern of Iran-Saudi Agreement to expand the scope and extent of cooperation and coordination to bridge other intra-Arab and intra-region issues. The Trilateral agreement is expected to find some solution of the Yemen crisis as Iran and Saudi Arabia are the regional backers of the fighting factions in that country. But differences between Saudi Arabia and UAE over Yemen and Abraham Accords needs strategic facilitation. India can leverage its close relations to bridge the differences.
The state of Palestine situation in the coming months is crucial for determining the evolving patterns. Israel’s policy towards Palestine needs an urgent reset to retain its strategic gains of the Abraham Accords. India can leverage its relations with Israel to orient Israel’s strategy towards Palestine to a strategic moderation. Similarly, Israel’s public antagonism against Iran can be brought to strategic patience and restraint. It can create a fruitful pathway to re-position itself in Iranian strategy to balance the China’s influence in that country where India has paramount strategic interests before China gets entrenched in its strategic thinking and envelops the whole region. I am strongly optimistic about India’s prudent responses to remain a prominent geopolitical actor in this strategic extended neighbourhood.
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In the realm of international relations, alliances, and partnerships often shift as countries adapt to changing geopolitical dynamics. One such case is the changing dynamics between Pakistan and India, and their respective relationships with the United States and Russia. Historically, Pakistan aligned itself with the United States while India maintained a more neutral stance but had closer ties with the Soviet Union, which later became Russia. However, recent developments suggest a reversal of roles, raising the question of who stands to benefit from these changing alignments.
The recent visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United States signifies a significant turning point in India-US relations. The two nations have witnessed a remarkable improvement in their bilateral ties over the past decade. According to the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum, the total bilateral trade between the two countries reached $149 billion in 2021, a significant increase from $20 billion in 2001. The United States has become one of India’s top trading partners and a key source of foreign direct investment.
The strengthening of India-US ties can be attributed to their shared concern over China’s rising influence. As of 2021, China is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $88 billion. However, China’s aggressive actions along the disputed border between India and China, coupled with its growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, have raised concerns in both India and the United States. The two countries have deepened their defense cooperation, with India purchasing advanced military equipment from the United States, including Apache helicopters and P-8 Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft.
Sarang Shidore, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute, a US-based think tank, emphasizes that the United States prioritizes its interests over democracy and human rights in its foreign policy. As long as the shared concern about China persists, the US-India relationship is expected to continue growing. The United States sees India as a vital ally in efforts to contain China’s rise and maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region. India, with its growing economy and strategic location, benefits from this alignment with the world’s largest economy and military power.
On the other hand, Pakistan has recently placed its first order for discounted Russian crude oil, marking an important development in Russia-Pakistan relations. The deal, struck between Islamabad and Moscow, includes one cargo to dock at the port of Karachi in May. This move highlights Pakistan’s efforts to diversify its energy sources and reduce its dependence on traditional suppliers. According to Pakistan’s petroleum minister, the country aims to increase its oil imports from Russia in the coming years.
While Pakistan has often attempted to repair its relations with Moscow when its ties with Washington were troubled, the relationship between the two countries has remained largely derivative of Pakistan’s relationship with the US. However, the recent order for Russian crude oil indicates a potential shift in Pakistan’s energy cooperation. Pakistan’s energy demand is growing rapidly, and diversifying its energy sources is crucial for its economic development. Russia, as one of the world’s largest oil producers, can provide Pakistan with a reliable and cost-effective energy supply.
Despite these developments, it is crucial to critically assess the narrative that a shift toward Russia could be more beneficial for Pakistan. Some argue that Pakistan’s alignment with the US during its formative years was a mistake, and closer ties with Moscow could have led to better outcomes. However, this viewpoint overlooks Pakistan’s historic grand strategy, which aimed to secure great power assistance to compensate for the regional imbalance caused by a larger India.
Examining the contemporary Russia-Pakistan relations in the context of the Ukraine crisis reveals that while some cooperation is taking place, it remains modest at best. In 2020, Pakistan and Russia conducted their first joint military exercise, named “Druzhba-2020″ (Friendship-2020). Both countries expressed their commitment to enhancing defense and security cooperation. However, significant challenges persist. Geo-economics constraints, geographical distance, and historic obstacles hinder the development of a substantial Pakistan-Russia partnership.
Geographically, Pakistan and Russia are separated by thousands of miles, with much of it poorly connected by roads or rail. Establishing robust economic and energy ties requires substantial investments in infrastructure and transportation networks. Moreover, Russia’s historic relations with India and its aversion to risking the benefits of that relationship pose challenges to Pakistan’s aspirations of a transformative partnership.
While Islamabad and Moscow may grow closer in certain areas, such as energy cooperation and defense exercises, it is unlikely to result in a comprehensive strategic realignment. Pakistan’s ties with the United States, based on security cooperation, economic partnerships, and people-to-people exchanges, have deep roots. The United States remains a significant source of foreign aid and investment for Pakistan.
In conclusion, the changing roles of Pakistan, India, the United States, and Russia in the global arena present an intriguing dynamic. India stands to benefit from its closer ties with the US, as both countries align to counterbalance China’s influence. Pakistan’s recent engagement with Russia in the energy sector suggests a potential shift, but significant constraints and historical obstacles impede the development of a deep strategic partnership. While both countries may reassess their alliances, it is India, through its strengthening relationship with the US, that appears to be the primary beneficiary of this evolving geopolitical landscape.
As geopolitical dynamics continue to evolve, it is essential for Pakistan and India to carefully navigate their relationships with the United States and Russia, considering their respective national interests and regional security concerns. Strategic choices should be made based on a comprehensive assessment of the potential benefits and challenges that come with different alliances, keeping in mind the ever-changing dynamics of the global stage.
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The Taliban’s power in Afghanistan is still strong and does not tend to fall in the near future. Nonetheless, the political situation continues to worsen. There are no proposals or possibilities for the Taliban government in Afghanistan to be acknowledged any time soon. The power within the radical Taliban movement holds a stable position even with the current contradictions and conflicts among elite groups. China’s diplomatic activity contributes to this as Beijing seeks to elevate its economic and structural objects in Central Asia. However, the excessive support of Pakistan and China for the radical Islamist movement, which uses terrorism as an instrument of a political war for power, entails negative consequences concerning the region. Georgi Asatryan, a Modern Diplomacy social scientist, political theorist, and member of the International Studies Association, wrote about this in a comment.
There have been changes in the political landscape of Afghanistan in 2023: the Taliban strengthened their power under the leadership of Hibatullah Akhundzada. The leader of the Taliban movement retained control over decision-making processes, including the appointment of Maulvi Abdul Kabir as the new acting prime minister and the relocation of the center of power to Kandahar. This was partly due to the support from Beijing and the Pakistani military circles.
According to the statements of Central Asia regional experts, the Taliban rule is gradually adopting more authoritarian positions and resembles the dogmatic policy of the 1990s. These conclusions are confirmed in the recently released annual UN Analytical Support and Monitoring Teem report for the UN Security Council Committee. The report also mentions that the return of Kandahar as a center of power, as it was during the Taliban rule in Afghanistan in the 1990s, is bypassing the opinion of high-ranking Taliban officials in Kabul, the center of the current government.
For example, such harsh decisions as the ban on education and employment of women and girls were issued in Kandahar, not in the capital. According to the document, the Taliban is fighting an internal conflict over the policy of centralizing power and control over Afghanistan’s financial and natural resources. It is reported that the ongoing power struggle is destabilizing the situation to such an extent that there is a risk of an outbreak of armed conflict between competing factions. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rejected the “accusations” outlined in the document, saying they were groundless and demonstrated “clear hostility” towards the Afghans. According to him, rumors of disagreements between the leaders of the Taliban continue the propaganda of the last 20 years. “The publication of such biased and baseless reports of the Security Council does not help Afghanistan, does not contribute to international peace and security, but rather increases anxiety among people.” The UN report describes Taliban leader Akhundzada as a “reclusive and elusive.” It is also said that he takes carefully considered steps to ensure his safety during meetings. Last year’s annual report of the UN Security Council group noted that handwritten messages, minimal use of a mobile phone, and face-to-face meetings are the main ways to conceal the location of the Taliban leader. Among other things, the report cites a statement by an unnamed member state of the UN Security Council, which states that Akhundzada got COVID-19 twice, due to which his respiratory system was weakened and kidney problems worsened. This suggests that senior Taliban leaders are waiting for the emir’s health problems to lead to a “natural succession.” Statements about Afghanistan’s entry into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project have been repeatedly published by Pakistan and China. At the same time, Afghanistan is an official member of Beijing’s broader initiative called One Belt, One Road. However, no actual progress was made until the Afghan Government made a decision relatively recently. Despite the above, China remains steadfast in its intention to increase diplomatic and economic relations with both sides.
Thus, China and Pakistan need the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to be maintained in order to promote their infrastructure and economic projects in the region. In this regard, both countries provide diplomatic and economic support to the Taliban. However, it also leads to unrestrained Taliban, who apprehend and feel profound support and strength and begin to tighten the policy, which is becoming more aggressive.
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The Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan is still powerful and does not tend to decline soon. Nevertheless, the political situation continues to deteriorate and worsen. Firstly, the primary mentor of the radical ethnopolitical movement using terrorism as a way of political struggle for power is getting less manageable both from the central leadership in Kabul and Kandahar and from the main sponsor and mentor of Pakistan. Islamabad, which is in a deep economic and political crisis, is gradually losing control over the political and military leadership of the Taliban. It is become more frequent when leaders of the radical movement are rude, do not obey, and do not respect the interests of the Pakistani military.
Secondly, there are rising contradictions between various groups within the Taliban. This conflict and competition are still in the initial stage and are manageable, but the trend is negative. Third, the Taliban regime fails to solve the economic and social problems of the state. According to UN research, Afghanistan is on the verge of famine and humanitarian collapse. It is worth noting that during the presence of the United States and NATO in the country, there was no such catastrophic situation. Also, during the period of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, the position of terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State has strengthened. The Taliban does not intend to start the fight with the presence of these organizations.
Fourthly, the Taliban tighten repression, regularly does not respect human rights, and harshly cracks down on opponents of their ideology and regime. The Taliban actively and systematically violate the rights of national minorities and women of Afghanistan. UNAMA experts report “arbitrary arrests and detentions of journalists, human rights defenders and protesters.” There were 160 extrajudicial executions, 178 unjustified arrests, and 56 cases of former Afghan military and Government employees being tortured. In addition, 2106 victims were registered among ethnic and religious minorities (700 killed, 1406 wounded).
The day before, the supreme leader of the Taliban movement, emir Hibatullah Akhundzada, announced the liberation of Afghan women from traditional oppression and the return of the position of “free people” to them, the Aljazeera agency reports. The Taliban, according to Akhundzada in his speech on the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, has taken “particular measures” to protect the Sharia rights of women and save them from traditional oppression, including forced marriages. He also stressed that the status of Afghan women as “free and decent people” has been restored in the country, and all institutions are obliged to help them ensure the right to marry, inheritance, and other rights.
“We have taken the necessary steps to improve the situation of women in order to provide them with a comfortable and prosperous life under the Islamic Sharia,” the Taliban leader said, noting that the problems of women in Afghanistan are also associated with “negative aspects of the 20-year occupation. “In January 2023, the Ministry of Education of the Taliban government in Afghanistan banned private universities from admitting women to admission tests. The ministry’s letter stated that universities would be held accountable in court for violating the ban.
Earlier in Afghanistan, in December 2022, was stopped access to universities for already enrolled female students. The Taliban government has also banned women from working in non–governmental organizations – there are about 180 of them in the country. Because of this ban, the UN suspended part of humanitarian programs in the country. The Taliban has also blocked girls from entering high school in most schools.
After coming to power in August 2021, the Taliban promised to respect women’s rights but soon began to impose restrictions. In September 2021, they changed the rules for universities: men and women were required to study separately and come to classes under a strict dress code, which assumes full compliance with the traditions of Islam in the understanding of the Taliban. Islamists eliminated the Ministry of Women’s Affairs, which had existed for 20 years, restricted access to school education for girls, banned women from playing sports, and TV presenters were obliged to wear a hijab.
Residents of Afghanistan periodically organize rallies for the observance of their rights. The Taliban dispersed the protests with shots in the air and recently created a special Ministry of Internal Affairs women’s unit to quell such demonstrations.
It is worth stressing that the hope of the women of Afghanistan can only be associated with systemic political and economic pressure from the international community and the leading democracies of the world. In addition to the Taliban themselves, sanctions and diplomatic efforts should be directed at their mentors – Pakistan’s military and political leadership. Despite the political and economic crisis, Islamabad and the Pakistani ISI still have some leverage and generally support the movement, including some radical tendencies among the Taliban.
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