Ukraine War
Timeline of the war
Feb. — March 2022
Russia invades Ukraine from the north and east, threatens to overrun Kyiv
April — Aug. 2022
Russia forced back from Kyiv, withdraws from the north and consolidates forces in the east
Sept. — Nov. 2022
Ukraine’s autumn 2022 counteroffensive recaptures territory in the east and south
Dec. ‘22 — May 2023
Russia’s winter-spring 2023 offensive kills many but yields few gains
June 2023
Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer 2023 counteroffensive begins in the centre of Russian lines
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Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner forces returned to base after a 36-hour mutiny that saw mercenaries heading toward Moscow and the prospect of bloody confrontations with regular military defending the Russian capital.
A last-minute deal averted the immediate crisis, but the mutiny raised questions about the state of the Russian leadership and the prospect that the long war in Ukraine may be taking its toll on their grip on power at home. The apparent ease with which Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary forces barrelled hundreds of kilometres towards Moscow from Russia’s south, facing little resistance, indicated that Russian reserve forces were so thin they struggled to respond to the threat.
These were the major figures in the biggest challenge to Russia’s military and political leadership in a generation:
Since entering the spotlight when his Wagner mercenary troops occupied the frontlines in the months-long fight to take the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin — a one-time caterer — has frequently criticised Russia’s military leadership.
On Friday, after claiming that Russian troops had bombed and killed large numbers of Wagner soldiers, Prigozhin released audio messages in which he challenged the rationale for the war and said his fighters would “punish” those responsible. Within hours, Wagner fighters were streaming back across the border with Russia, had captured the military command hub in Rostov-on-Don, and were seen heading towards Moscow.
After a deal was struck late Saturday, Prigozhin declared the whole thing off, commanding his troops to return to their bases, while he decamped for exile in Belarus.
While Prigozhin singled out Russian top military brass, he carefully avoided criticising President Vladimir Putin. But the president made a national address to the Russian people on Saturday condemning the mutiny as a “stab in the back” and vowing to crush it. Putin has not commented publicly since then.
Prigozhin had for months openly accused defence minister Sergei Shoigu of rank incompetence and of denying Wagner ammunition and support. Speculation quickly spread on Russian social media channels after the deal was struck to end the Wagner mutiny that Prigozhin might have secured concessions including changes in the military leadership. But on Monday, Shoigu was shown speaking to officers in an undated video released by his ministry. It was his first appearance since the crisis.
Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser who remains close to the authorities, said the video was “a signal to everyone that Shoigu is in office and will probably remain defence minister now”.
Valery Gerasimov — whom Prigozhin had also accused of incompetence — is in direct command of Russia’s campaign in Ukraine. He rarely appears in public and has not been seen since the mutiny.
Lukashenko became a surprise mediator to bring the crisis to an end after he brokered a deal between Prigozhin and Putin. On Saturday, he announced the deal would stop Wagner fighters streaming toward Moscow. In exchange, all charges would be dropped against Prigozhin and he would move to Belarus.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (Russian-occupied territory data as of 3 p.m. EST, June 25)
The fighting around Bakhmut continues. A month after Russian forces claimed to have taken the city after the longest and bloodiest battle of the war in Ukraine so far, Ukrainian forces have reported modest gains along the nearby frontline.
New analysis by Masae Analytics, a technology & strategy consulting firm, using satellite images and algorithm-based analysis, has measured the severity of the destruction in Bakhmut. The analysis measures damage to buildings, ranked from low to high levels of destruction and shows how broadly devastated the city has been after months of constant shelling and building-to-building combat.
The video shows a 3D model of the building footprint in western Bakhmut overlaid with videos and photos showing the destruction of many of those buildings since the assault on Bakhmut began.
Once a city of 70,000 people, Bakhmut is now mostly depopulated and a landscape of ruins. The most intense destruction can be seen in the western parts of the city, the last to fall under Russian control. The Ukrainian army withdrew slowly, fighting on every street. Nearly every building in this sector is marked by intense Russian bombardment.
This video combines Ukrainian drone footage with a 3D reconstruction of the western part of the city to depict the desolation in this last area seized by the Russians, now a scene of charred walls and broken glass.
Video journey through the devastated city of Bakhmut.
Moscow paid for its occupation of Bakhmut with close to 100,000 casualties. Some military analysts regard this battle as the bloodiest of the 21st century, often referring to it as a "meat grinder" and also say the city has no clear strategic value. Now, Ukraine is fighting to regain control over this ruined city, one of the key fronts in its counteroffensive.
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Sources: Analysis of the destruction of Bakhmut (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel-1 data (2023), processed by Masae Analytics.); Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (Russian-occupied territory data as of 3 p.m. EST, June 19)
Last week, Ukraine began its long awaited counteroffensive against the Russian occupation in the east. While Ukraine’s army reported some initial victories and liberated a handful of occupied towns, the hardened Russian lines are still ahead of them.
About 20 kilometres (12 miles) from the frontline of the counteroffensive stands one of the largest defensive systems constructed in Europe since World War Two, according to analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Visible by satellite, the Russians’ fortified line stretches roughly 2,000 km, running from Russia’s border with Belarus to the Dnipro Delta. About 1,000 km of dense and layered lines are located in Ukrainian territory.
"Map of Ukraine showcasing the latest territorial situation under Russian occupation. Russia has built a 2,000-kilometre-long line of fortifications, of which 1,000 km lies within Ukraine."
Ukraine’s initial focus of the counteroffensive has been to cut through the centre of the Russian lines. The Ukrainians have broken through initial fighting positions along a broad part of the front but remain some distance from Russia’s main defensive line.
The counterattack has been focused in at least three areas so far:
Ukrainian soldiers have regained some territory along a broad part of the front, but they are still 15-20 km away from the main Russian defense line.
Ukrainian troops have made progress on the southern and northern flanks of Bakhmut, advancing about 300 metres each day, according to reports.
The biggest territorial gains for Ukraine have been near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces liberated a cluster of four villages, including two visited by Reuters: Velika Novosilka, Storozheve, Neskuchne and Makarivka.
Despite constant ground attacks, there have been limited territorial gains since the counteroffensive began in various cities located 20 km south of Orikhiv.
Russian defences are strategically designed to stymie any Ukrainian breakthrough into the Russian occupied territories and channel Ukrainian forces into areas where defenders have the advantage.
The defensive lines consist of layered networks of trenches, anti-personnel and anti-vehicle mines, razor wire, earthen berms and dragon's teeth — concrete pyramids designed to obstruct the movement of main battle tanks and mechanised infantry.
One example of the layers of fortifications the Russians have constructed is on the outskirts of the occupied town of Mykhailivka, situated 25 km south of the frontline at Zaporizhzhia. Three distinct defensive lines and a three-sided position encircling the town await Ukraine’s forces here.
Ukrainian soldiers have regained some territory along a broad part of the front, but they are still 15-20 km away from the main Russian defence line.
Sources: Russian Fortifications, Brady Africk; Center for Strategic and International Studies; Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (Russian-occupied territory data as of 3 p.m. EST, June 15); Sentinel-2 L2A (Modified Copernicus Sentinel data, 2023, Sentinel Hub); Natural Earth; Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, NASA; OpenStreetMaps.
In the more than 475 days since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Ukrainians have endured near constant assault from devastating shelling along the front and missile and drone attacks striking cities far away from the battlefield. Despite an onslaught bigger than any in Europe since World War Two, Ukraine has survived. Kyiv hopes its next counterattack, supported by western weapons and training, can definitively turn the tide.
This is a brief history of what’s led to this moment where Ukraine hopes to decisively strike back:
After months of Russian military buildup along Ukraine’s border and failed international efforts to defuse the growing threat, Moscow orders troops to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. The Russians stream in on three fronts, with a massive mechanised column in the north that threatens to overwhelm Kyiv.
Moscow’s forces stall on the outskirts of Kyiv and it abandons its northern assault, leaving behind evidence of atrocities against civilians in the capital’s surrounding towns. Ukrainians score a stinging victory after the Russian warship Moskva is sunk in the Black Sea. Russia consolidates its forces in the east.
In early September, Ukrainian forces begin a “lightning counteroffensive” in the north and south. Russia acknowledges a section of its frontline has crumbled outside Kharkiv and retreats further east. In the south, Ukrainian forces push Moscow’s troops back across the Dnipro river, liberating the major southern city of Kherson.
After months on the back foot and much blame shifting in Moscow, Russia responds with an intense bombardment campaign, which Kyiv says targets energy infrastructure during the cold winter months. On the ground, the conflict settles into slow-grinding trench warfare. The city of Bakhmut becomes the site of the fiercest and bloodiest battles between Ukrainian defenders and waves of Russian mercenary fighters. Finally the city falls, but at a cost in lives that seems to far outweigh what little has been gained.
During the long winter, Russia has dug in, creating some of the longest and densest defensive lines seen in Europe since World War Two. But Ukraine has used the time, as well, to train new brigades on Western weapons, including advanced tanks and artillery. Kyiv is coy about goals for its much-anticipated counteroffensive, but analysts suggest the likeliest aim may be to cut the land bridge connecting Crimea to Russia and the occupied territories in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Map sources: Center for Strategic and International Studies; Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (Russian-occupied territory data as of 3 p.m. EST, June 15)
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