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The extent of civilian deaths is only beginning to be realised
Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images
The number of military and civilian casualties in Ukraine continues to rise, almost ten months after Russia began its invasion.
Vladimir Putin’s war aims suffered a serious setback in September when “Ukraine’s military mounted a lightning counterattack”, said Al Jazeera, regaining “swathes of territory in the northeast and south of the country”.
However, the number of casualties shows no sign of abating, especially as the extent of civilian deaths is only beginning to be realised. The Guardian reported that “about 1,000 bodies” of military personnel, civilian adults and children have been exhumed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Kharkiv, which was liberated in September. This included “the 447 bodies found at a mass burial site” in the strategically important city of Izium.
The discovery only added to the number of civilian deaths since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February. For the period 24 February to 27 November, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) put the civilian death toll at 6,655, with a further 10,368 people injured. The OHCHR clarified that it “believes that the actual figures are considerably higher”.
Reaching any firm conclusions over the true number of those killed throughout the war is difficult, but we can look at the figures given by a range of military, expert and news sources.
In early June, an unnamed Ukrainian official told The New York Times that at least 40,000 Ukrainian civilians had been killed or injured since the war began, but offered no further details.
The latest figures included in the OHCHR report says that, in total, there have been 17,023 civilian casualties recorded in Ukraine since the start of the war. Most have been caused by “the use of explosive weapons with wide area effects, including shelling from heavy artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles and air strikes”, said the report.
However, the OHCHR believes that the figure is an underestimate. Information from locations where there are “intense hostilities” means that many reports are pending corroboration, particularly in areas such as Mariupol, Izium Lysychansk, Popasna and Sievierodonetsk.
Russia rarely gives estimates for its military deaths, with the latest official tally given by defence minister Sergei Shoigu on 21 September, as Moscow announced a “partial mobilisation” of up to 300,000 reservists to support its floundering military campaign in Ukraine.
At the time, Shoigu said that 5,937 Russian soldiers had been killed since the start of the conflict, giving the first official figure since 25 March, when Russian military officials said that 1,351 soldiers had died, according to Reuters.
It is extremely difficult to build an accurate picture of military deaths and casualties on both sides of the conflict, with estimates given by both Moscow and Kyiv likely to be inaccurate.
However, Ukraine believes the number of Russian casualties to be far greater than the Kremlin’s own figures. The Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suggested that Russia has lost 89,440 troops since the start of the war.
Newsweek reported that this figure included over 6,170 soldiers over a period of just two weeks in the second half of November. “In addition to losing thousands of troops, Russia has also faced considerable artillery and vehicle losses in the two-week period”, added Zoe Strozewski for Newsweek.
Other estimates are even higher. The most senior US general, Mark Milley, has suggested the figure of Russian soldiers killed or injured was closer to 100,000 as of 10 November. Milley said that a similar number of Ukrainian troops had also died or been seriously hurt.
The BBC reported that the numbers, cited by “President Joe Biden’s most senior military adviser”, were the “highest offered yet by a Western official”. Milley’s figures include troops killed and those injured and unable to return to the battlefield.
Milley’s estimates were dwarfed by those of Ukrainian political adviser Mykhalio Podolyak. He “suggested that up to 100,000 Russian soldiers had been killed since the invasion began on 24 February, and that a further 100,000 to 150,000 had been wounded, or were missing or unable to return to combat”, added the BBC.
Podolyak also provided estimates on Ukrainian casualties, suggesting the number of dead and wounded military personnel is between 10,000 and 13,000. However, his comments are yet to be corroborated by the Ukrainian military.
As if to emphasise how difficult it is to gauge the death toll, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen erroneously stated during a video address earlier this week that 100,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed. A spokesperson later clarified that this was a mistake, “and the figure referred to those both killed and injured”, the BBC reported.
Podolyak has admitted that “more soldiers had been wounded than had died”, reported Sky News. And another adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Oleksiy Arestovych, said this week that Russia had suffered around “seven times” the number of deaths as Ukraine.
Obtaining accurate information about military deaths is “notoriously difficult”, said FullFact, with estimates relying on “a combination of intercepted communications on both sides, satellite imagery and ‘contact reports’ where troops in battle estimate how much damage they have inflicted on the other side”.
All these sources and their calculations also involve “an element of guesswork”. And it is important to note that both Russia and Ukraine have a “vested interest” in making the given figures “suit their needs”, said the site.
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