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Analysts believe spring could be key in deciding outcome of war
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Vladimir Putin faces “ruin” if a fresh offensive by Russian troops during the spring fails, a top Ukrainian military official has said.
There are fears in Kyiv that the Russian president could order his troops to go for broke in the months ahead following a number of setbacks in the war.
“If the major Russian offensive planned for this time fails, it will be the ruin of Russia and Putin,” Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said.
Front lines in the war have been largely frozen in place for two months despite heavy losses on both sides.
Western countries pledged billions of dollars in military aid last week, but have yet to respond to Kyiv’s request for hundreds of heavy battle tanks, which it says it needs to break through Russian lines and recover occupied territory.
Elsewhere, a number of Ukrainian officials have resigned or been sacked from their government jobs after president Volodymyr Zelensky ordered a crackdown on corruption.
Front lines in the war have been largely frozen in place for two months despite heavy losses on both sides.
Western countries pledged billions of dollars in military aid last week, but have yet to respond to Kyiv’s request for hundreds of heavy battle tanks, which it says it needs to break through Russian lines and recover occupied territory.
Most defence experts say the most suitable tanks available in sufficient numbers are German-made Leopards. But Berlin has so far held back from sending them, or from committing to let allies such as Poland send them.
Germany was not blocking the re-export of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, the European Union’s top diplomat said on Monday.
Ukraine and Russia are both widely believed to be planning spring offensives to break the deadlock in what has become a war of attrition in eastern and southern Ukraine.
“If the major Russian offensive planned for this time fails, it will be the ruin of Russia and Putin,” Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, said in an interview with news site Delfi.
Germany has decided to send a convoy of its main battle tanks to Ukraine, reports suggest, after days of pressure from Berlin’s allies.
Ukraine and many of Berlin’s Nato partners have been pleading for a decision on whether Germany would permit them to send German-made Leopard 2 tanks to help Kyiv as the battlefield begins to thaw.
Der Spiegel reported on Tuesday evening that chancellor Olaf Scholz had finally decided to allow allies such as Poland to do so – and that Berlin would also send tanks of its own.
Berlin and Washington could make official announcement on Wednesday
Allegations that the Treasury helped the founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group “circumvent sanctions” and take a British journalist to court will be “looked into very carefully”, a minister has suggested.
OpenDemocracy reported yesterday that a Treasury team gave Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s lawyers permission to sue a Bellingcat journalist in the UK in 2021 while the Russian oligarch was subject to sanctions.
Lib Dem MP Layla Moran raised the allegations in the Commons today as MPs debated the government’s economic crime bill, asking business minister Kevin Hollinrake whether the report had been investigated, adding: “This is sanctions that we imposed, and yet somehow we are not imposing them in practice. This isn’t right.”
The minister replied: “I think it would be wrong to make any representations on any particular case, but anybody who seeks to enable somebody to avoid sanctions, clearly that is entirely unacceptable.
“I am sure those allegations will be looked into very carefully and we should definitely make sure there is a proper review before we come to any firm conclusions.”
Ukraine’s ruling party has drawn up legislation aiming to boost transparency in defence procurement – after an army food contract became the subject of high-profile corruption allegations.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team is trying to set out a tough stance after the defence ministry was accused by a media outlet of overspending on food – allegations it denied. The supplier has said it made a technical mistake and no money had changed hands.
Anastasia Radina, head of the parliamentary committee for anti-corruption matters, said the bill would make it obligatory for prices paid for products and services for the army to be made public on the state procurement website – with arms purchases exempt.
“We are obliged to ensure a level of transparency in procurement for the army, under which such scandals simply will not arise. Can it be done in a way that does not expose customers and suppliers to additional risks? Yes,” she said.
The legislation has been sent to parliament for discussion and would need to be approved in three votes in that chamber before being signed into law.
The chief of Russian paramilitary organisation Wagner has responded to comparisons made between him and Rasputin.
Referencing an article in the Financial Times which likened him to the historic Russian mystic, Yevgeny Prigozhin – the founder of Wagner – appeared to gloat about his intentions.
My colleague Eleanor Noyce reports:
Yevgeny Prigozhin made the comments in response to a Financial Times article comparing him to Russian mystic Grigori Rasputin
The United States, in a reversal, appears to be dropping its opposition to sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and an announcement could come as soon as this week, two US officials told Reuters on Tuesday.
The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they were not aware of a final U.S. decision to send the Abrams to Ukraine, a move that could encourage Germany to follow.
The Pentagon could not be immediately reached for comment.
The German government will handle with utmost urgency Poland’s request to allow Warsaw the export of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, the state secretary at the economy ministry said on Tuesday.
“I can only tell you: We will urgently work on taking a decision,” Sven Giegold told a defence conference in Berlin organised by Handelsblatt, adding that the defence ministry was in the lead on the matter.
President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that there were shortages of some medicines in Russia, despite the country producing more of its own drugs, and suggested building up stocks of popular medicines to help meet demand.
While prescription drugs are exempt from Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine, their delivery to Russia has been hit by transport, insurance and customs hurdles caused by the war and other restrictive measures, industry figures say.
“There has been a shortage of some drugs, despite the fact that we saw production of pharmaceutical products in the (first) three quarters of last year grow by about 22 per cent,” Putin said in a televised meeting with government officials.
“Sixty percent of medicines on the market are domestic drugs. Nevertheless, a deficit has formed in some drugs, and prices have risen.”
Vladimir Putin
Finland’s foreign minister said on Tuesday a time-out of a few weeks was needed in Finland and Sweden’s talks with Turkey on their application to join the NATO military alliance.
Turkey’s president said on Monday that Sweden should not expect his country’s support after a protest near the Turkish embassy in Stockholm at the weekend, which included the burning of a copy of the Koran.
“A time-out is needed before we return to the three-way talks and see where we are when the dust has settled after the current situation, so no conclusions should be drawn yet,” foreign minister Pekka Haavisto told Reuters in a telephone interview.
“I think there will be a break for a couple of weeks.”
Pekka Haavisto
Britain will not dictate to its allies what form their support for Ukraine should take, Downing Street has said, as Germany faces increasing pressure to approve the transfer of Leopard 2 battle tanks.
Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg became the latest to urge the speedy delivery of “heavier and more advanced” weapons systems to Ukraine, after talks with the new German defence minister Boris Pistorius in Berlin.
But Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson said the UK government would not “dictate to other countries exactly what they should or should not provide – first and foremost that must be for those countries”.
He added: “We look to work with our allies in lockstep as much as possible. Our approach has borne fruit. You’ve seen the huge amounts of equipment, material and financial support that has been provided to Ukraine since the start of the war.”
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via REUTERS
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