A brief mutiny led by Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin may have been an “orchestrated event”, a global affairs analyst has told Sky News. He is now in apparent exile Belarus after an agreement with Vladimir Putin, but many questions remain unanswered.
Monday 26 June 2023 12:17, UK
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By Tamara Cohen, political correspondent
A statement on the UK government’s assessment of developments in Russia this weekend will be delivered at around 3.30pm by the foreign secretary.
After a dramatic 24-hour mutiny by the Wagner Group, there is much discussion among analysts about whether it is the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin. But some defence sources I’ve spoken to urge caution.
We will be looking out for whether James Cleverly and others echo the language used by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken this weekend.
Mr Blinken said the attempted rebellion by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin “raises profound questions, shows real cracks” in Vladimir Putin’s authority.
However, Mr Blinken told CBS it was “too early” to predict what impact the mutiny could have on the Kremlin.
As the rebellion gathered pace on Saturday, the Ministry of Defence said on its official Twitter feed that “this represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times” but that how it played out would depend on the loyalty of Russia’s security forces and army.
Some in government have been cautioning that talk of a Russian collapse is premature.
Ex-MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger said in a radio interview this morning that Putin was “significantly weakened”, but ultimately, Prigozhin did not have enough men to carry out a coup, so Putin could “hang around for a long time”.
He said: “I think it rapidly became clear, particularly when the shooting began, that he [Prigozhin] didn’t really have any prospect of succeeding. No-one was going to join him.”
Chair of the Defence Select Committee Tobias Ellwood told Sky News that Prigozhin had, for the Russian people, busted some myths of the invasion, posting a video that said the war was based on lies and making blistering criticism of Russia’s generals.
The government is closely watching for any changes to Putin’s top personnel, including defence minister Shoigu and head of the military General Gerasimov, but the message from ministers today is likely to be watching and waiting, as any power shift could be slow to play out.
More details have emerged about the Wagner Group’s 24-hour mutiny at the weekend.
As the mercenary fighters moved north from the city of Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow, Vladimir Putin reportedly refused to speak to their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on the phone.
The Kremlin turned to negotiations involving Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Office Anton Vaino, and Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.
Russian sources claimed the first Wagner column that began moving towards the capital consisted of 350 pieces of equipment, including nine tanks, four Tigr infantry fighting vehicles, a Grad MLRS system, and a howitzer, it added.
After a deal was struck, and Prigozhin’s men started to leave the city, a prominent Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel shared an AI-generated image of him holding a finger to his lips and stating “plans love silence”, the ISW said.
The phrase is commonly used in Ukraine about operational security.
Vladimir Putin has issued his first statement since the Wagner Group’s 24-hour mutiny on Saturday.
Uploaded to the Kremlin website, the Russian president failed to mention the assault in the message and instead congratulated the participants of an industrial forum.
He has also held a phone call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who expressed full support for the Russian leadership, according to Interfax.
Analysis by our Moscow correspondent Diana Magnay earlier suggested we could see more of Putin’s “business as usual” diary appointments as the aftermath of Prigozhin’s assault continues.
Russia’s prime minister has urged people to rally around Vladimir Putin after the Wagner Group’s aborted mutiny.
In what appeared to be the first public comments by a senior Russian official since the mercenary fighters started to withdraw, Mikhail Mishustin said the country had faced “a challenge to its stability” and must remain united.
“The main thing in these conditions is to ensure the sovereignty and independence of our country, the security and wellbeing of citizens,” he said.
“For this, the consolidation of the whole of society is especially important; we need to act together, as one team, and maintain the unity of all forces, rallying around the president,” he said.
His comments came after Putin said on Saturday that the rebellion by the Wagner force had threatened Russia’s very existence.
The Russian president has not publicly commented on the dramatic events since then.
Ukrainian troops have taken control of a village in the eastern Donetsk region, the country’s deputy defence minister has said.
Rivnopil is located at the junction of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, and settlements either side of it are already under Ukrainian control.
“Defence forces returned Rivnopil under our control. Let’s move on,” Hanna Malyar wrote on Telegram.
Ms Malyar said in an earlier statement that Kyiv’s forces had liberated about 130 square kilometres (50 square miles) in the south since Ukraine began offensive operations several weeks ago.
By Moscow correspondent Diana Magnay
The dust is settling. The damage is deep. And the question remains, especially in the absence of any clear direction from Vladimir Putin – what happens next?
Expect the Kremlin to deliver a bit more of the “business as usual”, “nothing to see here” Putin diary appointment videos. We have video of the defence minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting a Western command forward operating base apparently in the “special military operation zone”, supposedly this morning, though Telegram chatter is busily debating whether it was filmed before the coup took place.
And Prigozhin was presumably told in no uncertain terms to keep his head down in Belarus for the time being, even if he is not the type who likes to keep quiet for long.
So what will happen to the top military command, who’ve just weathered weeks of criticism and a short-lived but dangerous armed rebellion? How much credibility do they still have in the eyes of their men when thousands if not hundreds of thousands serving in the Russian armed forces must have watched those Prigozhin videos and felt a few home truths?
Prigozhin was good at taking the side of his troops, pointing out the pointlessness of the whole Ukraine exercise, raging against the hideous and unnecessary loss of life. That must mean a good deal if you’re sitting on the frontlines wondering if you’re next.
Putin famously favours loyalty and defence minister Sergei Shoigu and his chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov have been nothing but loyal. The commander-in-chief will also not want to look as though he has been forced to bow to pressure, especially not from Prigozhin who he has just denounced as a traitor. But there is now speculation that he is casting around for alternatives.
The name of the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, is one of those mentioned as a possible Shoigu successor. If there is a reshuffling, then it will probably happen once the dust has settled.
It was also apparent from the whole contracts debacle that Shoigu – and therefore Putin – must have decided that the Ukraine war could and should now only be handled by the Ministry of Defence and that all other freelance units, Wagner being the most prominent, should be incorporated into the fold.
That was an indication that Shoigu was on the up. It was probably also the reason why Prigozhin decided to chance it, demanding Wagner be seen on an equal but separate footing to the Russian armed forces. Folie de grandeur, perhaps.
So if Putin replaces Shoigu now, he looks weaker still.
Though I will finish with the caveat, given Saturday’s lightning events, that all is unpredictable and remains so, despite the apparent calm of the last 24 hours.
Described as an attempted coup by many, the Wagner Group’s march towards Moscow on Saturday sparked fears in the Kremlin that Vladimir Putin was about to be overthrown.
But our military analyst Sean Bell says Prigozhin was really just looking for an opportunity to try to oust the head of the Russian army Valery Gerasimov and defence secretary Sergei Shoigu – until doubts started to creep in.
“If you look at it from a very simple perspective, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group was told it was going to have to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence on 1 July,” he said.
“That date was fast approaching and it was pretty evident the Wagner Group, which only makes money when they are commissioned to do this sort of dirty work for Putin… that its opportunity was waning.
“Therefore he was finding himself gradually ostracised, and he thought he could mount some kind of protest.”
Initially, Prigozhin managed to take over the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don without a shot being fired, but gradually the situation began to unravel as he moved up the M4 highway towards Moscow.
“What looks pretty evident as Prigozhin was heading up the M4, actually he was being opposed,” Bell said.
“Apparently he tried to call Putin. Putin wouldn’t take his call. The Russian air force tried to fire against Prigozhin. By all accounts, seven helicopters were shot down by him.
“We understand there are 16 Russian military who were killed as a result of that. This was clearly escalating into something else. And you can only imagine the doubts.”
With Yevgeny Prigozhin apparently banished to Belarus and his mercenary fighters avoiding prosecution, it remains unclear what will happen to the Wagner Group following its mutinous assault on Russia.
Suggestions have been made that the mercenary group could be banned from Russia, but a US thinktank has said the movements of its men indicate something different.
Wagner forces have continued to withdraw from their positions in the Russian southern city of Rostov-on-Don, with videos purportedly showing them returning to training camps inside the country with military equipment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.
This indicates that the Kremlin “intends to maintain at least certain elements of Wagner’s manpower rather than seek to immediately demobilize them”, it explained.
Despite this, the future of its command and organisational structure remain “unclear”.
The ISW added that efforts to absolve the group’s fighters of responsibility for taking part in the armed rebellion may show “the Russian leadership could redeploy Wagner to Ukraine or instead commit them to international missions”.
The leader of the Wagner Group will not be a threat to Ukraine from Belarus, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK has said.
Suggestions have been raised that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s move to the close ally of Russia could have been orchestrated by the Kremlin to put the mercenary fighters in a position to launch an attack on Kyiv.
This has been coupled with Moscow’s recent decision to place nuclear weapons in the country.
Vadym Prystaiko told Sky News: “I do not believe that the forces which Prigozhin is bringing with him to Belarus will threaten our flanks because we were keeping forces strong enough there just for the Russian forces.”
He added that it was “interesting” to see Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko “growing in importance”.
“He was planning this to, you know, become something more important than just Belarusian leader,” he said.
“That’s one of the explanations why he agreed to become a unionist state with Russia. Now is the best times of his political career.”
At least 13 Russian missiles were intercepted overnight, the Ukrainian Air Force has said.
Three Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from a submarine in the Black Sea and eight Iranian-made Shahed drones were launched from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov, it said.
Air defences destroyed two of the missiles and seven of the drones, as well as four unmanned aerial vehicles, it added.
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