Sunday 13 August 2023 22:45, UK
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Vladimir Putin is the man who brought war back to Europe, sending his tanks into Ukraine on 24 February last year.
Little is known about the murky workings of the Kremlin and of Putin’s state of mind – but what we do know can help shine a light on why the war came about and where it might be headed.
Our live reporter Emily Mee has been speaking to experts about what Putin’s motivations are, and what we know about the Russian president.
Read her full piece here:
On paper, Urozhaine might not sound like a particularly important place. It’s a long, narrow village that was once home to just a thousand people.
Yet by all accounts it’s been the scene of some of the most intense fighting anywhere in Ukraine in the past week.
There have been mixed pictures painted in the past few days, with both sides claiming they’re now in control of the town.
But Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in parts of the Zaporizhzhia region controlled by Moscow, says Ukrainian forces are trying to get through Russia’s defence lines en route to the Sea of Azov.
“The enemy managed to enter and gain a foothold in the northern part of Urozhaine after two weeks of the heaviest and bloodiest battles for this settlement,” Rogov said.
He said Russian soldiers still controlled the southern part of Urozhaine, adding that Ukrainian forces were clearly aiming to take control of another town, Staromlynivka.
The fact that Staromlynivka is just four miles to the south, is a symbol of just how fraught battles for minute distances on the frontline have become.
Ukraine’s ultimate aim appears to be pushing south to liberate Mariupol – the destroyed city 56 miles away on the Sea of Azov.
One spokesman for a Russian battle group claimed Ukraine had suffered losses for Urozhaine, but didn’t say how many.
Ukraine’s defence forces publish a very detailed report every night outlining where they and Russian forces have pushed each day. It’s their opportunity to paint how the war is going in their favour.
Tonight, there’s no mention of Urozhaine in that report.
The western Russian region of Belgorod has apparently been targeted by a series of drone attacks over the course of today – and it looks like it’s happened again tonight.
Russia’s defence ministry claims its air defences have shot down another drone over the region at about 10pm local time – that 8pm in the UK.
Officials on Telegram said they has “foiled […] another attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack”.
No damage or casualties were reported.
It would be the fifth drone Russia has shot down over the region today. As we reported in our 1.15pm post that the ministry claimed to have downed four drones earlier in the day.
But as you can see in the photos from our 6.51pm post, an apartment building and cars were damaged in what appeared to be a separate drone attack later in the afternoon.
One of today’s main developments has been the killing of seven people, including a 23-day-old baby, in shelling of Shyroka Balka in the Kherson region this morning.
Air raid sirens have been reported across the region for the rest of the day.
And this evening, further shelling has reportedly injured two people in the village of Bilozerka, on the outskirts of Kherson region.
Military officials claimed on Telegram that 12 houses were damaged, injuring a man and a 31-year-old woman.
They also claimed Russia dropped three guided aerial bombs on Odradokamyanka, a village further east along the Dnipro river.
Months of Ukrainian pushback and Russian defence have left Ukraine the most heavily mined country in the world, according to the country’s defence minister.
Speaking to the Guardian newspaper, Oleksii Reznikov claimed that millions of explosive devices had been placed along a frontline extending roughly 600 miles.
Some parts of the frontline presented up to five mines per square metre, he said.
Some of those mines have been left by Ukrainian forces to protect their own defensive lines – but the vast majority are Russian.
Mr Reznikov added: “Russian minefields are a serious obstacle for our troops, but not insurmountable,” he said.
“We have skilled sappers and modern equipment, but they are extremely insufficient for the front that stretches hundreds of kilometres in the east and south of Ukraine.”
Demining Ukraine has already been a topic of discussion among allies, with a meeting of 54 countries in July agreeing to train and equip Ukraine with more specialist mine clearing units.
The defence minister said that while that meeting had unlocked donations, more was desperately needed from a wider range of partners.
“At this stage of our de-occupation campaign we critically need more mine clearance equipment, from minesweeping trawls to Bangalore torpedoes,” he said.
Mr Reznikov also appealed to Kyiv’s allies to ramp up their support in demining the country, calling on them to “expand and expedite” training for the Ukrainian military.
The UK is among the countries to have provided bomb disposal experts for training. Last month, Royal Navy officers trained their Ukrainian counterparts in northwest Scotland’s Loch Ewe, showing them how to defuse bombs underwater.
Yesterday was one of the busiest days yet for the Polish border guard’s attempts to crack down on illegal migration from Belarus.
Quoting border officials, Polish media is reporting that 160 people tried to cross into Poland yesterday, including citizens of Somalia, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sri Lanka.
They added that three Ukrainian nationals were also arrested for trying to help four Syrian and three Bangladeshi citizens into Poland.
It means over 500 people have been detained already this year for assisting illegal border crossings.
Yesterday’s figures fit into a picture that Polish officials have been painting for weeks, suggesting that crossings have rocketed this year.
The head of the border guard says 19,000 people have tried to cross the border illegally since January – up from 16,000 in all of last year.
The surge caused officials to ask the Polish government for 1,000 troops to secure the border earlier this week. Warsaw ended up sending double that amount on Wednesday, “to stem illegal crossings and maintain stability”.
At 1.15pm we reported claims by Russia’s defence ministry that they had shot down at four drones over their southern Belgorod region, and that no damage or casualties had been reported.
It now seems there has indeed been some damage in Belgorod city this afternoon.
Describing the situation as an “emergency”, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said an explosion was reported at 5.43pm local time.
“The reasons for the incident are being established,” Mr Gladkov wrote on Telegram. “According to a preliminary version, the damage was caused by a UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] attack.”
If that’s the case and if the timing is correct, it suggests it was caused by a drone separate to the four shot down earlier.
His Telegram message did not mention where the drone may have come from.
Mr Gladkov said there were no casualties, but that it had damaged an apartment building between the seventh and thirteenth floors.
He added: “I talked to the residents of the damaged flats: windows were broken, air conditioners were damaged, the facade of the building was cut.
“Apartment rounds continue. Also about 15 cars were damaged. We will definitely help with restoration.”
The regional governor shared photos showing some of the damage.
Over the past week we’ve been bringing you extracts from a series exploring what we know about Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin.
The man has maintained a firm, iron grasp on Russian power since the turn of the century – yet he remains an illusive man, usually hidden behind the Kremlin’s high walls.
Our live reporter Emily Mee has been speaking to experts to uncover some of the mystery behind the man waging war in Ukraine.
In our 4.04pm post we brought you developments from the Black Sea, after a Russian warship reportedly fired what are described as “warning shots” at a civilian cargo ship bearing the flag of Palau, because it apparently refused to stop.
You can read our full write-up of the incident here.
Well Kyiv has responded, in the form of President Zelenskyy’s top adviser, the ever-vocal Mykhailo Podolyak.
Mr Podolyak described the incident as a “deliberate attack” and a “forced inspection” by Russia.
He said it was “a clear violation of international law of the sea, an act of piracy and a crime against civilian vessels of a third country in the waters of other states”.
“Ukraine will draw all the necessary conclusions and choose the best possible response,” he added.
By military analyst, Sean Bell
When Yevgeny Prigozhin launched his abortive coups against President Putin on 23 June, he appeared to ride a wave of popular support as his forces made their way towards Moscow.
It was the biggest challenge to Putin’s authority in two decades, and he urgently needed to consolidate his power base, reassert his authority, and weed out any threats to his rule.
An intervention by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko persuaded Prigozhin to abandon his abortive march on Moscow, and also helped Putin remove the lingering threat of Wagner by offering to host the mercenary group of fighters in Belarus.
This intervention was invaluable to Putin, and provided Lukashenko with some rare leverage in his usually subservient relationship with the Russian leader.
But once Putin had reasserted his authority, his attention turned to Wagner and more specifically their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Although Wagner had provided Russia rare battlefield success in the Ukraine war – most notably in seizing Bakhmut – and Putin relies on Wagner for providing invaluable revenue-generating military services in Africa and beyond, Putin had to limit the potential for any repeat coup attempt.
Wagner forces relocating to Belarus were offered the opportunity to join the Russian ministry of defence, or be redeployed to Wagner’s overseas operations. Those that refused were left in Belarusian camps.
But mercenary forces must be paid or risk becoming “guns for hire”. Lukashenko appeared to assume that Russia would pay their salaries.
So when Russia refused, Lukashenko was faced with a difficult choice: fund the Wagner mercenaries and risk promoting domestic unrest, or kick the remaining mercenaries out of his country.
Mindful that Lukashenko has his own ambitions – many analysts believe he still aspires to be Putin’s successor – he might have judged that Wagner forces located in Belarus might prove useful should the war in Ukraine escalate and threaten Belarus’ territory.
However, it now seems likely that whatever “deal” Lukashenko brokered with Putin has now time-expired.
Although a few Wagner fighters might remain to provide useful military training for the Belarusian military, we can expect to see the remaining Belarus-based Wagner fighters gradually dissipate over the coming weeks.
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