Last week was a big one for major forecasting agencies, with OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) all dropping their latest outlooks for 2024 and 2025.
OPEC stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand this year, pointing to an uptick in travel and tourism that it anticipates will support consumption.
That group is eyeing world oil demand growth of 2.25 million bpd in 2024 and 1.85 million bpd in 2025.
The IEA, meanwhile, left its forecast for relatively low oil demand growth unchanged at 970,000 bpd for 2024 and lowered 2025’s forecast by 50,000 bpd to 980,000 bpd.
Global demand in the second quarter rose by 710,000 bpd year-on-year, its lowest quarterly increase in over a year, the IEA said, pointing to contracting Chinese consumption.
Chinese demand was in focus on Monday after new data showed that the second-largest economy grew by 4.7% in the April-June quarter, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2023. Chinese crude oil imports also fell 2.3% in the first half of this year.
The wide rift between OPEC and the IEA is also in part due to differences over views on the pace of a transition to cleaner fuels.
While OPEC and the IEA have been among the most closely watched for fuel demand growth predictions, those from the EIA have gained in importance. The United States is the world’s largest fuel market and the biggest oil producer.
The EIA in its Short-Term Energy Outlook last week held its demand growth view steady at 1.1 million barrels per day for 2024 – closer to the IEA forecast than OPEC. It actually revised upwards its 2025 outlook by 300,000 bpd to 1.8 million bpd.
Non-OECD countries will drive the majority of that demand growth this year, the EIA said in its report, offsetting some small declines by OECD countries. It sees non-OECD consumption rising by 1.4 million in 2025, mostly driven by gains in China and India. You can read the full report here.
