Texas Governor Greg Abbott speaks at an event in June at the Rustic.
It’s a no-brainer: Gov. Greg Abbott ought to be right in the middle of the presidential jockeying in 2024.
As a three-term governor coming off a solid re-election in the nation’s biggest Republican state, Abbott would typically be acting like his predecessors — George W. Bush and Rick Perry — making trips into Iowa and New Hampshire ahead of the early primaries.
But that isn’t happening so far, putting Texas at risk of having no serious contender for the White House from either party for the first time since the 1970s.
“We’ve never discussed this,” said Dave Carney, Abbott’s top political adviser who has worked on several presidential campaigns. “Never done any plans for it. No travel that would be a prelude to testing-the-waters type stuff. Just focused on things here in Texas.”
One reason: Donald Trump.
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The former president has already announced he’s running in 2024, which is going to dissuade dozens of Republicans who would normally be in the conversation from bothering to look at the race.
Julián Castro, Democrat. The former San Antonio Mayor became one of the first candidates to declare for the White House. Castro was considered by Hillary Clinton as a potential running mate in 2016 and was Secretary of the Department of U.S. Housing and Urban Development.
Beto O’Rourke, Democrat. The former El Paso Congressman would jump in a short time after Castro, raising big money early but slipped in polling later.
Both O’Rourke and Castro dropped out before the Iowa Caucus.
Ted Cruz, Republican. The U.S. Senator got a big jump on the presidential field, winning the Iowa Caucus over second-place finisher Donald Trump. Cruz would go on to win 11 states before withdrawing in May and eventually backed Trump after the Republican National Convention.
Rick Perry, Republican. The former Texas governor announced his campaign in June 2015 in Addison. The campaign didn’t last long. Perry quit in September amid poor polling.
Ron Paul, Republican. The longtime Texas congressman filed to run for president as a Republican after early straw polls showed him winning many contests. Paul finished in 3rd place in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. He would win 190 delegates before losing at the convention to Mitt Romney.
Rick Perry, Republican. The former Texas Governor made his first campaign for president. Perry finished a distant fifth place at the Iowa Caucus and then last in New Hampshire. He suspended his campaign shortly after that.
Ron Paul, Republican. The former congressman jumped into the GOP primary in March 2007. Paul finished a distant fifth place in Iowa and won less than 40 delegates overall.
George W. Bush, Republican. The former Texas governor defeated U.S. Sen. John Kerry and won re-election. He had no serious primary opposition.
George W. Bush, Republican. The former Texas governor easily won the Iowa Caucus but faltered in New Hampshire where Sen. John McCain won. Bush then won in South Carolina as he rolled to the GOP nomination.
Phil Gramm, Republican. The U.S. Senator announced his campaign for the White House at Texas A&M University in February 1995. About a year later, he finished 5th in the Iowa Caucus and withdrew from the race.
Ross Perot, Reform Party. In his second run for the White House, the Dallas tycoon ran as a member of the Reform Party and made little impact. He won just 8 percent of the vote nationwide.
George H.W. Bush, Republican. The incumbent president was renominated by the GOP but would lose re-election to former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.
Ross Perot, Independent. The Texarkana native in February 1992 announced he would run for president as an independent. He won almost 20 percent of the national vote.
George H.W. Bush, Republican. The former vice president from Houston had the backing of President Ronald Reagan in the primaries. Though he lost the Iowa Caucus, Bush dominated other early states to secure the nomination and eventually defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis for the White House.
Lloyd Bentsen, Democrat. Bentsen, who lived in Houston, declined to run for president early in the campaign, but Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts chose him as his running mate.
Ron Paul, Libertarian. The Texas congressman ran as the Libertarian candidate for the president.
George H.W. Bush, Republican. Bush was once again Ronald Reagan’s running mate as the two cruised to victory over Democrat Walter Mondale.
George H.W. Bush, Republican. Bush jumped out to an early lead by winning the Iowa Caucus over Ronald Reagan. But Reagan would win New Hampshire and dominate the race from there. Bush suspended his campaign in May of 1980 and later endorsed Reagan, who in turn made him his vice president.
John Connally. Republican. The former Texas governor who had switched from being a Democrat to a Republican jumped in the race in January 1979. Connally finished a distant fourth in Iowa but rebounded in South Carolina for a second place finish to Reagan. It wasn’t enough, though, as he withdrew from the race the next day.
Lloyd Bentsen, Democrat. In February 1975, Bentsen jumped into the race and was an early favorite due to big fundraising numbers. He focused his campaign on a few key states early but lost in then-early voting states Mississippi and Oklahoma. Bentsen would struggle the rest of the way, even losing Texas to eventual nominee Jimmy Carter of Georgia.
Normally 15 to 20 Republicans might be making trips to Iowa or New Hampshire — the first primary states — to gauge the reception they’d get.
While the midterm elections just ended, the presidential cycle starts quickly. Candidates typically jump in between March and July the year before the presidential race.
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If anyone is going to beat Trump, the GOP cannot have a crowded field splitting the non-Trump vote.
Just four or five serious contenders would probably be enough to hand Trump the nomination, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
The 2016 race shows exactly how that can happen. Back then, Trump never topped 35 percent of the vote in the first three states: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. But because the non-Trump votes splintered among more than a half dozen other contenders, Trump surged to an early dominating lead that he would never relinquish.
“Even today, despite everything, much of the Republican base remains with him,” said Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University.
Jillson said if the non-Trump elements of the Republican party want to avoid renominating him, they’ll have to limit the field and build momentum behind just one opponent, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has frequently been mentioned as a top contender for 2024.
In November, the Republican Party of Texas released the results of a poll of 1,099 likely GOP primary voters that showed DeSantis as the clear front-runner of potential alternatives to Trump. About 43 percent said they’d support DeSantis and 32 percent said they’d back Trump again. No other candidate had more than 5 percent.
Similarly, a national poll by Quinnipiac University in November showed Trump and DeSantis each with 44 percent of the vote in a potential head-to-head contest.
Jillson said DeSantis and other well-known Republicans including former vice president Mike Pence, former ambassador Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are further along as potential candidates for the White House than Abbott.
It’s unusual not to have a Texan in the mix.
From 1980 to 2016, there has always been a Texas Republican in the mix, thanks largely to the Bush family. And Democrats have had serious challengers at times, including former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen in 1976 and more recently former Congressman Beto O’Rourke and former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro in 2020.
While Texas often has some big names in the race, it doesn’t mean it always goes so well.
Texas has plenty of one-time contenders who fizzled out. Jillson said it shows how hard it can be to translate Texas politics onto the national stage. Many Texas candidates have underestimated how much time and focus it takes to run a coast-to-coast campaign for the White House, he said.
Even without Trump, Jillson said he’s not sure where Abbott fits into the White House contender list. Having risen in the political ranks as a judge, he’s a more measured politician than those who come from a more legislative background like DeSantis, who served in Congress before first running for governor in Florida in 2018.
Abbott may have two terms as governor under his belt, but “he can be a quieter guy,” Jillson said. “He’s gathered influence in Texas but he’s not that booming voice that is going to command a big setting.”
Abbott, 65, got his start in politics in 1992 when he won a district judge race in Harris County. He later became a Texas Supreme Court Justice and then served 12 years as the Texas Attorney General before becoming governor.
And he hasn’t been angling to run quite like U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who has for the last two years dropped not-so-subtle hints that he wants to run for president again. But Cruz, too, has been hesitant to declare he’d take on Trump in another race as he did in 2016.
Earlier this year, Cruz made it clear Trump’s decision would be a major factor in determining the size of the 2024 GOP field.
“If Trump doesn’t run, I think everybody runs. Every name you’ve heard, every name you haven’t even heard,” Cruz said.
Abbott has gotten an “honorable mention” in some early projections of top presidential candidates. The Washington Post last month left him out of its Top 10 candidates but gave him consideration along with U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
While Abbott is not on the top tier of potential candidates, should Trump reverse course and leave the race, he has clear advantages if he were to run.
He’s been a big fundraiser in Texas, piling up more than $140 million to secure his re-election. He has been a dominant national voice on border security — routinely the No. 1 issue for GOP primary voters.
But Abbott has said little to preview a potential run. The most he’s said about running for president came years ago when asked about it by television reporters. Abbott would only say he’s focused on his re-election and after that “we’ll see what happens.”
Abbott won his re-election over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in November by 11 percentage points and has said he’s focused on fulfilling his campaign promises to provide tax relief, improve border security and keep the state’s economy booming.
While a solid win, Carney said the results don’t signal one way or another whether he should run for the presidency in 2024 or down the road.
“There’s nothing that happened (in the re-election) that would say that he can’t run for president. Or that he should run for president,” he said.
jeremy.wallace@chron.com
Jeremy Wallace has covered politics and campaigns for more than 20 years. Before joining the Hearst Texas newspapers in 2017 he covered government and politics for the Tampa Bay Times, The Miami Herald and the Sarasota Herald-Tribune. Previously he covered Congress for the Boston Globe and Detroit Free-Press. Originally from San Antonio, he attended the University of North Texas and earned his bachelor’s degree from the University of Missouri. You can follow him on Twitter, @JeremySWallace, or email him at Jeremy.wallace@chron.com.