Ukraine needs new fighter jets. Here’s how it would use them.
Just days after agreeing to send western tanks to Ukraine, support is growing for sending fighter jets next. The Netherlands and Poland are both considering transferring F-16s, and a new report says there is growing support in the U.S. government to also send the jets. The F-16s would be used to patrol Ukrainian airspace, particularly against Russian cruise missiles.
According to Politico, a growing number of U.S. military officials inside the Pentagon are in favor of sending F-16s to Ukraine. The F-16, a design that dates back to the 1980s, would be useful while not as escalatory as sending a stealth fighter such as the F-22 Raptor or F-35 Lightning II. “Let’s face it, a nuclear war isn’t going to happen over F-16s,” one official quoted by the news site said.
Ukraine started the war with 43 MiG-29s and 26 Su-27s—less than 70 fighter jets in all. The jets were all built during the Cold War, making them at least 32 years old, and few have received meaningful upgrades. Sixteen of the MiGs and seven of the Su-27s have been lost in 11 months of combat, almost all to Russian fighters and surface-to-air missiles. Former Warsaw Pact NATO air forces have transferred spare parts (and, in the case of Poland, reportedly entire planes) but nearly a year of high intensity war has likely run down both NATO’s and Ukraine’s stockpiles of spare parts and weapons.
One proposed solution has been to transfer F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters to Ukraine. The F-16, originally designed as a low-cost dogfighter, has over the past four decades evolved into a highly capable, multi-mission strike fighter. Popular among the NATO air forces, the F-16 is gradually being replaced in their inventories with the F-35 Lightning II. As the new F-35s arrive, NATO air forces, like those of the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Poland, and others, are retiring their F-16s, presenting an opportunity for Ukraine. This process will also free up large numbers of spare parts and munitions F-35 operators no longer require.
Fighter jets are dual-role aircraft: while they can be used offensively to seize control of another country’s airspace, they are equally at home defending their own.
If Ukraine receives F-16s they will be restricted to a defensive role, at least for now. Like any modern military power, Russia has layered air defenses over the theater. This starts at the lowest level with man-portable air defense weapons like the SA-18 and SA-24 shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile systems, which are effective to an altitude of about 13,000 feet, then short- and medium-range air defense systems such as Pantsir S-1, Tor, and Buk, and longer range surface-to-air missile systems like the S-400 Triumpf.
As a result, the most likely mission for F-16 style jets is probably national air defense, protecting Ukrainian military and civilian targets from air and missile attacks. Many fourth-generation fighters, of which the F-16 is an example, have “look-down/shoot-down capability.” This capability, first made commonplace in the late 1980s, refers to a fighter radar sophisticated enough to detect low-flying targets against the “noise” of clutter produced by terrain features below. Originally meant to be used against low-flying bombers and strike aircraft, it is also useful against Russian Kalibr, 9M729, and Kh-101 cruise missiles. The F-16C’s AN/APG-68 radar can detect targets in look-down/shoot-down mode at up to 31 miles.
Russia has repeatedly unleashed barrages of land attack cruise missiles against Ukrainian targets, including energy infrastructure, as a means of demoralizing civilians. A F-16 armed with AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, already transferred to Ukraine as ammunition for the NASAMS air defense system, could fly roving patrols over the country, quickly responding to cruise missile attacks and bolstering ground-based air defenses.
Among NATO’s F-16 operators, Poland and the Netherlands have both indicated they would send F-16s. Poland operates 36 F-16s of a more recent vintage, with 32 F-35 Lightning IIs on order and set to begin arriving in 2026. Unlike other F-16 operators, Poland was not preparing to retire its F-16s any time soon, so it will probably symbolically lend a few to Ukraine to get the ball rolling. The Netherlands originally had a fleet of 213 F-16s, reduced to 68 with the end of the Cold War. It has 52 F-35s on order. The Royal Netherlands Air Force could probably spare a dozen F-16s, and could transfer more as more F-35s arrive.
Ukraine says its pilots believe they would need about six months of training to become proficient on the F-16. Politico reports the Ukrainian government has identified up to 50 veteran, English-speaking fighter pilots that could take on the task.
On Monday afternoon, President Joe Biden, when asked if the United States would send F-16s to Ukraine, answered it would not. The New York Times added, “The White House declined to comment on a question about whether Mr. Biden was ruling out the use of the jets entirely or just an immediate transfer of them.”
If you’re in favor of sending F-16s to Ukraine, this may not be as bad as it looks. The President was against the transfer of M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks for 11 months, only to reverse his decision in late January 2023. The issue of sending tanks to Ukraine was entirely a political one, and once it was clear the issue had widespread support the U.S/ government changed the policy very quickly. This could happen again with F-16 fighter jets… or it could not.
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