Two IAFC-130J are waiting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and an Indian naval ship has reached Port Sudan on the Red Sea, ready to evacuate 3,000 Indian nationals who are stranded in Sudan, where forces loyal to two rival generals are fighting a fierce battle on the street of the capital Khartoum.
The US, Britain, France, Italy, Russia, South Korea, and several Arab countries had either pulled out or were in the process of evacuating some or all of their nationals from the country on Sunday (April 23).
Owing to its strategic location on the Red Sea, access to the Nile River, the vast swath of gold reserves and agriculture potential, the third largest African nation has long been coveted by outside powers, including its neighbours, the Gulf countries, Russia and the Western nations.
Hopes of a promising era for Sudan and its people first emerged after the ouster of the long-serving authoritarian President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Years of international isolation came to an end, financial aid poured in, and billions were invested in development projects by several countries, thinking that Sudan would soon transition to democracy.
The 2021 coup, however, which was led by the Lt Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the current army chief, and Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — both of them are currently embroiled in the tussle against each other — dashed all such expectations.
The latest conflict has pushed hopes for the establishment of a peaceful democracy even further to the margins, casting a long shadow on the general election set to take place in July this year. As numerous international countries scramble to contain the battle, experts suggest they are the ones responsible for it in the first place.
“Everyone wanted a chunk of Sudan and it couldn’t take all the meddling,” Magdi el-Gizouli, a Sudanese analyst at the Rift Valley Institute, a research group, told The New York Times. “Too many competing interests and too many claims,” he added, “then the fragile balance imploded, as you can see now.”
Neighbouring States in Africa
Sudan’s geographic location is crucial as it borders seven countries — Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, Eritrea and South Sudan. Therefore, many analysts fear that the ongoing war between the military and RSF would spill over into neighbouring countries, which are already mired in their own internal conflicts, causing destabilisation of the entire region.
Speaking to the Associated Press, Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group said, “What happens in Sudan will not stay in Sudan… Chad and South Sudan look most immediately at risk of potential spillover. But the longer (the fighting) drags on the more likely it is we see major external intervention.”
The coup-prone Chad is already suffering from a dire refugee crisis and Sunda’s war might further deteriorate the situation — refugees from contested areas in western Sudan have already arrived in Chad, DW reported. Meanwhile, South Sudan, created in 2011 and battered by bloody civil wars, also remains unstable.
Egypt, too, is closely observing the latest development. The country shares a strong bond with Sudan’s military, which it sees as an “ally against Ethiopia”, AP stated. Ethiopia, a land-locked nation, has locked horns with both Egypt and Sudan over its ambitious hydroelectric dam, which could impact the Nile River’s flow.
United Arab Emirates
Once South Sudan seceded from Sudan, it took away 75 per cent of Khartoum’s oil resources with it, leaving the latter with far less money and avenues of income. In a bid to contain the shrinking economy, Sudan lured foreign investors and one of them was the UAE.
The oil-rich West Asian nation saw potential in Sudan’s “huge, and relatively underused potential of the rich soil that borders the Nile River”, investing heavily in the agriculture sector, the BBC said.
The UAE also used the opportunity to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa. It built close ties with RSF chief Dagalo, who supplied thousands of his men to aid the Emirates and Saudi Arabia in their battle against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. In return, Dagalo received a large sum of money, which helped him build his paramilitary forces stronger than ever — this became a bone of contention between Sudan’s military and RSF.
The NYT reported that soon after the conflict broke out, several UAE diplomats joined in to try and stop it. “One Western official said the Emiratis appeared to have a case of ‘buyer’s remorse’”, it added.
Russia
For Russia, Sudan has a subject of interest. The Kremlin has been wanting to construct a naval base for years, capable of hosting up to 300 troops and four ships in Port Sudan, located on one of the world’s busiest and most contested sea lanes. “Moscow has come close to finalising a deal about the base with Sudan’s military government — which seized power in 2021 in a coup,” the BBC reported.
Moreover, Russia’s Wagner group is also involved in Sudan. According to several media reports, the organisation, which is known to have deep ties with President Valmadir Putin, has stakes in the country’s gold and uranium reserves and supplies mercenaries to the restive region of Darfur.
Therefore, it didn’t come as a surprise when on Friday, the Wagner Group’s alleged owner Yevgeny Prigozhin offered to help mediate between Dagalo and Burhan, saying he wants “peace”. American officials, however, said Prigozhin has offered weapons as well, NYT reported.
Israel
Israel seeks support from Sudan in its efforts to encourage other Arab and Muslim nations to form a political and military front against its arch-enemy Iran. As a result, in 2020, the two countries agreed to normalise relations and three years later, established diplomatic relations officially.
Not only this, last year, officials from Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, visited the African country to meet security leaders including Dagalo, who offered counterterrorism and intelligence cooperation, according to the NYT.
Western Countries
The West, including the United States, unanimously celebrated when Bashir was ousted from power in 2019 after a months-long uprising against him. It hoped that the development would not only bolster the country’s transition to democracy but also curtail the growing influence of Russia and China in the region.
“But critics say Washington was slow to swing behind a transition towards elections.,” as the 2021 coup derailed the whole process, Reuters reported.
With so many countries holding stakes in Sudan, any glimpse of quick mediation between the two fighting generals seems more complicated than the war itself.
“The external mediators risk becoming a traffic jam with no policeman,” Alex De Waal, a Sudan expert at Tufts University, wrote in a memo to colleagues this week about the situation as per the AP.
Alind ChauhanThe write is a journalist at The Indian Express…. read more