It’s finally the week of the U.S. consumer price lottery, and never has a second decimal been so important. The median forecast for core CPI is 0.3%, which alone would be a real relief after three months of 0.4’s. But will it be nearer a dovish 0.26%, or a hawkish 0.34%?
The former, or even lower, would see the market bring a July rate cut back into play from its current pricing of 25%. The latter, or higher, would see the probability of a September easing recoil from the present 61%, perhaps by quite a lot.
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/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/ZUVAAOVRKRLLJJ3ROFKKV4XRFY.jpg "With US inflation, every decimal counts 36")
