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Joe Biden, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are all expected at Bali in November, says James Orr. Can hosts Indonesia nudge them from conflict to engagement?
Journalist on South Asia, the US and the Middle East, Freelance
A series of global crises forms the backdrop for the leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies who are meeting in Bali on November 15 for the two-day G20 summit – from the war in Ukraine to a cost of living crisis and the heightened prospect of a global recession.
The guest list, confirmed by Indonesia in August, is extraordinary in that it includes Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, and Vladimir Putin, the embattled Russian president, who recently threatened nuclear escalation in his war in Ukraine after suffering heavy losses. Joe Biden, the US president, is also expected to attend in person, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, will make an appearance remotely.
The White House has hinted that a meeting between Biden and Xi could take place in Bali
The White House has hinted that Biden and Xi will meet in Bali despite tense rivalries over Taiwan. Such a meeting could prove a diplomatic challenge for Indonesia. The US and Chinese presidents have talked only five times via telephone or video link since January 2021.
‘China’s expansionist aspirations are undoubtedly a key international issue at the moment, but confrontation is not the Indonesian approach so as chair I can’t see it using the G20 as an opportunity to caution China,’ said Daniel Peterson, a scholar of southeast Asian studies and Indonesia at Queen Mary University of London. ‘Even if it did, China wouldn’t take heed. Indonesia foolishly thinks that the more China invests in the country the less likely they are to impinge on its sovereignty. But China thinks the opposite, and that could lead Indonesia to a precarious tipping point at some stage.’
Indonesia – a resource-rich archipelago consisting of about 17,500 islands – is southeast Asia’s largest economy and the 16th largest in the world. Experts say its president, Joko Widodo, will seek to use the event to boost foreign direct investment, including for infrastructure projects such as the $32 billion proposal to shift its capital from Jakarta, which is sinking, to the jungles of Borneo.
Despite the tense diplomatic atmosphere, the pressing concerns about the world economy, energy and food shortages, and climate change will be the focus.
‘Most members of the G20 feel that you must continue to talk about other global problems even when you are in a military confrontation,’ said Dennis Snower, president of Global Solutions Initiative, a network of think tanks providing policy advice to the G20 and G7. ‘The next generation will not forgive us if we ignore climate because of the war in Ukraine.’
Indonesia’s president faces a delicate task as the G20 pivots towards a renewed emphasis on the Global South, with subsequent presidencies going to India, Brazil and South Africa.
International policymakers point to a growing recognition that refocusing resources and attention on developing nations’ economies is essential to tackling looming climate change emergencies, as well as encouraging more equitable, inclusive growth.
‘The focus cannot just be on GDP,’ said Snower, ‘but on factors that contribute to wellbeing, such as solidarity, agency and the environment. There is a basic sense that the way forward requires a socioeconomic and ecological transformation that leads us to sustainability with material wellbeing, which for developing countries will mean growth but growth decoupled from environmental damage.’
Among less prominent developments at the summit will be a move by central banks towards playing a more critical role in the provision of cryptocurrency. There will also be further discussions around the Climate Club, a global cooperative first championed by Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor.
Image — US President Joe Biden gestures as he meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. Photo: MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images
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