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Demand in the ASEAN region is forecast to increase by 4.8 percent from 2021 to 76.1 million mt in 2022 and to finally reach pre-pandemic level at 81 million mt only in 2023. The strongest support will come from Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, according to the countries’ speakers. For instance, demand in Malaysia will go up by 0.8 million mt or 11.4 percent to 7.8 million t this year after gaining 0.2 million mt last year. Steel consumption in Thailand is forecast to increase by 3.7 percent to 19.45 million mt in 2022, while in 2023 the demand is expected to exceed 20 million mt. Indonesian consumption will reach 16.03 million mt, up by 0.8 percent year on year. Meanwhile, Vietnam and the Philippines have not announced their official forecasts for steel consumption this year, though both countries remain positive as well in terms of steel demand recovery.
The biggest driver for the steel usage increase in the ASEAN region has been the recovery in construction and automotive. In particular, the construction activity in the region is forecasted to increase by 5.3 percent year on year in 2022 amid higher infrastructure investments. “Apart from Covid-19, infrastructure remains the government’s priority. The Ministry of Public Housing had the highest allocation (IDR 150 trillion) among other ministers to promote infrastructure development in 2021, and this number was 30 percent higher than the initial budget,” the representative of Indonesia’s PT Krakatau Steel, Ilham Arief Gautama, stated.
“Indonesia has a huge potential for a demand increase amid the construction of our new capital, which will require around 9 million mt of steel,” vice president, government and institutional relations, PT Krakatau Steel, Tuti Rachmawati told.
At the same time, automotive production in the ASEAN region will grow by 16.6 percent compared to last year. The main automotive hub in the ASEAN – Thailand – expects to increase vehicle production by almost seven percent to 1.8 million mt in 2022, while car production in Malaysia and Indonesia is expected to increase by 10.2 percent and seven percent, respectively.
According to Dr.Nae Hee Han, there are three key words for the current state of the global economy: surging inflation, continued supply chain disruptions, and uncertainty. And the main problem is the Russian-Ukrainian war, which causes supply disruptions of critical commodities and raw materials, soaring energy and food prices, and the general slowdown of the global economy.
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