What Xi Jinping plans for China – and the world – with five more years of power

Good morning. Yesterday, Jeremy Hunt enacted what the Guardian’s political correspondent, Peter Walker, described as a “polite coup”. Hunt gutted Liz Truss’s mini-budget, discarding all but two elements of her plan and, in a final blow to her legitimacy, scaled back the energy package that Truss announced in September. The energy price guarantee will only be universal until April – rather than 2024 – making a mockery of Conservative party taunts at the paucity of the Labour offering. So come April, voters will be facing higher mortgage payments, higher energy bills, and rising inflation all at the same time.

Go to the Guardian front page to read more about Truss’s desperate attempts to keep her job as prime minister. Today’s newsletter will, in contrast, take a close look at a leader who has no problem staying in power.

On Sunday, Xi Jinping, the president of China, laid out his priorities for the country as his second term comes to an end. His speech didn’t surprise anyone – but in many ways it didn’t need to: Xi’s plans for his country have been clear for at least five years now. And with the widespread expectation that he will be confirmed for his third term as president this week, making him the first leader to serve more than two terms since Mao Zedong, Xi remains resolved in his vision for China: an economically self-sufficient country with no cases of Covid-19 and no opposition to the ruling Communist party.

I spoke to the Guardian’s Helen Davidson about how Xi accumulated all of this power and what the next five years in China will look like. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: More propaganda, more crackdowns, more censorship

China’s economic and geopolitical power means that any seismic political change impacts just about everyone on the planet. As Xi consolidates this power, the question is, what does five, 10 and potentially even 20 years of Xi rule mean for China and the rest of the world?

How he got his power

Xi Jinping’s plan to break from modern precedent in China and continue in his role as president for a third five-year term has been an open secret for a while. In 2018 more than 2,000 delegates of China’s legislature cast a near unanimous vote to end two-term limits on the presidency. Even though Xi reassured onlookers that the abolition of term limits does not “imply a system of lifelong leadership”, this consolidation of power suggests quite the opposite. “The limits were built into the Chinese Communist party’s political structure as a way to prevent the problems that came around the cult of personality and the overwhelming concentration of power that China had under Mao Zedong,” Helen says.

Xi amassed this power both by culling anyone from the party he deemed not loyal enough and by disseminating masses of propaganda to the population. He’s been signalling to citizens his intention to occupy this role for a lifetime by elevating the status of Mao and erasing Deng Xiaoping, a leader who was known to uphold a more collective form of leadership, from the public consciousness.

Five more years

Xi’s speech on Sunday suggested that the next five years are likely to be more of the same in the country. “That means increasing domestic oppression of minorities,” says Helen, “particularly in the border regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. In Hong Kong there’s been greater control over people, there’s been an increase in censorship, more crackdowns on human rights lawyers, more propaganda.” There was no sense on Sunday that this was going to stop or slow down.

This pattern will hold true for China’s relationships with other countries too – expect more of the same. When Xi took power a decade ago, China and the US were economic partners. But in recent years, China has become more isolated and more hostile towards foreign relationships, particularly with the west – and trade is particular point of contention, both inside and outside the country.

“China is working to develop its own internal domestic market so that it can withstand further trade sanctions and the severing of trade relationships – but it’s not there yet,” says Helen. China is particularly vulnerable in the technology market, with extensive new US export controls designed to cut off China from obtaining semiconductors that are vital in the development of supercomputers and AI. “These restrictions are starting to bite and cause a lot of complications for Chinese companies that have hired American executives, researchers and scientists,” Helen says. Companies will find it difficult to operate with or in China while at the same time navigating the growing list of sanctions and trade restrictions.

Covid-19

By far and away, Xi’s biggest challenges are Covid-19 and the economy, with the two issues inextricably linked. As Xi doubles down on China’s zero Covid policy, it continues to have incredibly damaging financial implications. “The population is getting quite frustrated with it,” Helen says, “the sudden lockdowns of buildings, neighbourhoods, entire cities, at any moment. We’ve seen people going to Ikea to do some shopping and then having a lockdown suddenly announced for the building and people are literally running for the doors to try not get stuck there for however long.” And as we were talking, it was announced that Beijing had delayed the release of the third quarter GDP data, which, Helen says, “suggests it’s not looking very good”.

Taiwan

Xi opened Sunday’s speech with a declaration that China will never renounce its right to use force against Taiwan. While that was not new, the tone he took was sharper and more aggressive than it has been in the past. The geopolitical implications of further intervention, either in the form of military invasion or blockades that cut off Taiwan from the rest of the world, would be far reaching. The US has indicated that it would come to Taiwan’s aid, and if that help comes in the form of military intervention the question remains over whether other countries could become embroiled too. That’s a lot of “ifs” – and it should be said that there is no new indication that invasion is imminent or even likely in the medium term.

But Xi’s decision to embrace one-man rule in a country that has spent decades rejecting it means China is heading into the unknown, says Helen. Whether a population fatigued by continual lockdowns and economic stagnation will walk into the haze willingly is unclear.

What else we’ve been reading

• Michael Segalov’s interview with Sanaa Seif (pictured above) gives a fascinating insight to a family at the heart of the Egyptian revolution in 2011, and the impact it’s had on them: Sanaa’s been forced to flee to London while her brother Alaa remains in prison. Toby Moses, head of newsletters

• Jeremy Corbyn issues a warning to Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt: people have had enough. They will not accept any more political or economic chaos that inevitably harms them. “We have wasted too much time already delaying transformative change,” Corbyn writes in the Guardian. “We cannot afford to waste any more.” Nimo

• How we met is always a lovely way to start the week, but the unusual beginning of Tim and Tumi’s romance is a particular delight: “I meant to say I’d seen her around but I told her: ‘I’ve been watching you’ instead,” he says. “I knew I’d blown it straight away.” Toby

• In this fascinating piece, Libby Brooks visited Lilias Centre in Glasgow, a radical women’s prison set to open in Scotland that focuses on independence and rehabilitation. Nimo

• If you’re wondering how exactly “the market” has brought Liz Truss down, look no further that Duncan Weldon’s excellent examination of whether governments really control their economies: “In a country like Britain, being an economic policymaker is more akin to sailing a boat than driving a car. A government can tack and trim with a greater or lesser degree of skill, but in the final analysis it cannot change the direction of the wind.” Toby

Sport

Rugby union | Wasps have gone in to administration, with 167 staff, including all players, made redundant. The club will be relegated from the Premiership at the end of the season

Football | An independent report by leading academics into the chaos at May’s Champions League final between Liverpool and Real Madrid claims police treatment of fans “constituted criminal assault”.

Cricket | West Indies, the two-time T20 World Cup champions, were thrashed by Scotland in their opening match of this year’s competition in Hobart.

Extremely online

Our irregular look at the weird and wonderful way social media reacts to the news

Liz Truss’s failure to turn up in parliament to answer an urgent question from Keir Starmer was the source of much hilarity online yesterday, especially when her substitute, Penny Mordaunt, confirmed she wasn’t hiding under a desk and had a very good reason for not attending – continuing to answer questions on Truss’s behalf, even after the prime minister had entered the chamber to listen to Jeremy Hunt …

Jon Sopel recommends some West Wing homework for Mordaunt.

But our own Pippa Crerar has a less charitable reading of Mordaunt’s “mistake”.

And we even had a rare good joke from Starmer …

Only, Truss then did turn up as Mordaunt spoke – to take her place next to Jeremy Hunt as he delivered his statement.

The front pages

Tuesday’s Guardian newspaper leads with “Hunt rips up PM’s plans in astounding U-turn on tax”. The Sun has “The ghost PM” and says “‘Sorry’ Liz silent as Hunt rips up budget” while the Daily Mail judges Liz Truss to be “In office, but not in power”. The Express says “Truss: I’m sorry … we went too far and too fast”. “Mini-budget meltdown” and “Humiliated” – the Mirror’s words to describe yesterday’s scenes. “Hunt takes charge as PM fears the exit” is the i’s assessment. “We must take decisions of eye-watering difficulty” – the Telegraph quotes Jeremy Hunt, while the Times looks at what one eye irritant might be: “Hunt’s mea culpa could mean £5,000 fuel bills”. “The axeman cometh” – that’s the Metro while the Financial Times delivers a summing-up: “Truss’s future on knife-edge after Hunt rips up her economic strategy”. You can also see the major front pages in our round-up here.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

If you thought moving home was stressful, imagine how hard it is when you’re taking eight gorillas, not to mention 299 other species, along for the ride. As Bristol zoo shuts up shop, 76 species are being moved to its sister site, the Wild Place Project, in South Gloucestershire, which will become the new Bristol zoo. The others are spreading their (metaphorical and literal) wings to zoos around the world, from America to Spain.

But don’t worry – they all get to move with their friends. The Aldabra giant tortoises – Twiggie, Biggie, Mike and Helen – will be travelling together to Jersey’s Durrell zoo in wooden boxes. Every box must be custom-made to fit each tortoise, to ensure they do not injure themselves during transit. As for the gorillas? Some sweet treats in their crates help lure them in and keep them happy during the long journey head.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.

• Quick crossword

• Cryptic crossword