All 85 respondents to the Reuters poll for the ECB see no change on Thursday, given how much push back there was from policy makers last week. Almost half of analysts tipped a first cut for June, with futures now implying just a 20% chance for March but still around 80% for April.
Markets have 130 basis points priced for 2024, in part on the theory that inflation will slow sharply enough that the ECB will have to cut to stop real rates from rising.
The Bank of Canada and Norges Bank meetings this week have no expectations of any change, but Turkey is considered likely to hike given hawkish commentary last week.
Odds on a Federal Reserve cut in March have shifted to 50-50 following a run of better data on retail sales and consumer sentiment, but May remains an 89% bet.
Reports on U.S. GDP and the core PCE price index could change the equation, with a lot riding on the core PCE rising 0.2% or less in December. The annual pace could slip under 3% for the first time since March 2021, while the six-month annualised pace is already just under 2%.
The week is also crowded with earnings, and appetites have been whetted by the upgrade from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) on booming demand for high-end chips used in AI applications.
That should sharpen attention on results from Intel and IBM, along with Tesla, Netflix, Lockheed Martin and a host of others.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/GGZ5RDYSU5PXTKXR5HL3VXGO6E.jpg "Juiced-up Nikkei counts on BOJ staying relaxed 36")
